CD Universidad de Concepción vs. O'Higgins FC: Draw at halftime?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 97¢ · $558 held · ends Nov 5

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$558.24

Combined PnL

$26.16

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 97¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$395.63

Total Shares408

Combined PnL+$45.11

No5 traders

Total Value$21.37

Total Shares325

Combined PnL-$18.95

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WH whosay	Yesavg 85.3¢	$188.68	$214.3	+$25.62	56% 1135-882 (2017)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 89¢	$141.57	$154.14	+$12.57	75% 110-36 (146)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 42.7¢	$806.47	$141.24	-$665.24	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.2¢	$39.06	$85.59	+$46.53
└ No leg	Noavg 42.7¢	$767.41	$55.65	-$711.76
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121<$100	Yesavg 72.2¢	$20.27	$27.19	+$6.92	83% 81-17 (98)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$54.12	$14.89	-$39.23	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 12.9¢	$13.74	$3.31	-$9.86	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$1.62	$1.67	+$0.05	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$5.13	$1.09	+$31.03	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 10.5¢	$1.36	$0.4	-$0.96	43% 3128-4187 (7315)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$188.68

Value

$214.3

PnL

+$25.62

Record

56%

1135-882 (2017)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$141.57

Value

$154.14

PnL

+$12.57

Record

75%

110-36 (146)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$806.47

Value

$141.24

PnL

-$665.24

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

Both legs:

Yes$39.0644.2¢+$46.53

No$767.4142.7¢-$711.76

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.27

Value

$27.19

PnL

+$6.92

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$54.12

Value

$14.89

PnL

-$39.23

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$13.74

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$9.86

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.05

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$31.03

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.96

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.