Will CD Universidad de Concepción vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 99¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 5

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$29.1K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 99¢

+24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.9K

Total Shares29,328

Combined PnL+$6.0K

No6 traders

Total Value$150.83

Total Shares14,365

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 88.2¢	$16.4K	$15.0K	+$2.0K	61% 961-606 (1567)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 50¢	$4.0K	$7.8K	+$3.9K	50% 174-172 (346)
xxNyx	Yesavg 97.1¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$112.23	82% 1819-407 (2226)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 31.6¢	$2.6K	$87.34	$-2.4K	50% 21502-21770 (43272)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 1.7¢	$60.54	$41.97	-$18.57	51% 6507-6271 (12778)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$77.04	$11.56	-$60.94	53% 16959-15080 (32039)
0X 0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873CTR	Noavg 14.1¢	$127.74	$9.5	-$107.78	37% 120-203 (323)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$21	$0.31	-$20.56	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$10	$0.15	-$9.83	53% 2667-2350 (5017)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$16,378.58

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

61%

961-606 (1567)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$3,966.64

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

50%

174-172 (346)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$6,004.76

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$112.23

Record

82%

1819-407 (2226)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$2,626.43

Value

$87.34

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

50%

21502-21770 (43272)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$60.54

Value

$41.97

PnL

-$18.57

Record

51%

6507-6271 (12778)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$77.04

Value

$11.56

PnL

-$60.94

Record

53%

16959-15080 (32039)

0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873CTR

Invested

$127.74

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$107.78

Record

37%

120-203 (323)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$20.56

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$9.83

Record

53%

2667-2350 (5017)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.