Will CD Universidad de Concepción vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw?

4 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 98¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 5

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$18.5K

Combined PnL

-$366.67

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 98¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 15 top traders (27%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares18,621

Combined PnL+$4.5K

No11 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares16,414

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 85.7¢	$12.0K	$9.9K	+$1.2K	60% 911-595 (1506)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 50¢	$4.0K	$7.3K	+$3.4K	53% 172-153 (325)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 31.6¢	$2.6K	$623.84	$-2.0K	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 70¢	$3.1K	$327.04	$-2.7K	51% 23811-22567 (46378)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$77.04	$82.59	+$5.55	53% 16492-14656 (31148)
0X 0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873CTR	Noavg 14.1¢	$127.74	$67.82	-$59.92	38% 119-198 (317)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 2.8¢	$20.31	$54.42	+$34.11	20% 2544-10095 (12639)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 27.9¢	$183.25	$49.18	-$134.08	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$13.77	$14.73	+$0.96	42% 2984-4080 (7064)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 6.9¢	$4.7	$5.1	+$0.4	44% 6278-8008 (14286)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 9.1¢	$51.26	$3	+$3.5	60% 11636-7873 (19509)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$21	$2.25	-$18.75	58% 44906-32675 (77581)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$10	$1.06	-$8.94	74% 2402-842 (3244)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 97¢	$2.84	$1	+$0.01	47% 2092-2375 (4467)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 96.8¢	$0.99	$1	+$0.01	55% 4369-3567 (7936)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$12,031.92

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$3,966.64

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

53%

172-153 (325)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$2,626.43

Value

$623.84

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$3,053.67

Value

$327.04

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

51%

23811-22567 (46378)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$77.04

Value

$82.59

PnL

+$5.55

Record

53%

16492-14656 (31148)

0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873CTR

Invested

$127.74

Value

$67.82

PnL

-$59.92

Record

38%

119-198 (317)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$20.31

Value

$54.42

PnL

+$34.11

Record

20%

2544-10095 (12639)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$183.25

Value

$49.18

PnL

-$134.08

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$13.77

Value

$14.73

PnL

+$0.96

Record

42%

2984-4080 (7064)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.4

Record

44%

6278-8008 (14286)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$51.26

Value

PnL

+$3.5

Record

60%

11636-7873 (19509)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$18.75

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$8.94

Record

74%

2402-842 (3244)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.84

Value

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

2092-2375 (4467)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.99

Value

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

4369-3567 (7936)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 15 top traders (27%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.