CD La Serena vs. CD Palestino: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 72¢ · $948 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$947.68
-$16.43
71.8¢ → 71.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 71.8¢ | $412.36 | $407.64 | -$4.71 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Overavg 29¢ | $246.63 | $238.06 | -$8.57 | 53% 2695-2376 (5071) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 72¢ | $217.94 | $214.94 | -$3 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 70.9¢ | $85.54 | $85.64 | +$0.1 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.4 | -$0.25 | 52% 9014-8167 (17181) |
Invested
$412.36
Value
$407.64
PnL
-$4.71
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$246.63
Value
$238.06
PnL
-$8.57
Record
53%
2695-2376 (5071)
VeryLucky888Invested
$217.94
Value
$214.94
PnL
-$3
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$85.54
Value
$85.64
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.25
Record
52%
9014-8167 (17181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.