Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD La Serena vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$1.4K
-$32.67
50.2¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 50.2¢ | $548.43 | $534.79 | -$13.64 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Overavg 50.2¢ | $535.72 | $522.4 | -$13.32 | 53% 2695-2376 (5071) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 50.2¢ | $229.71 | $224 | -$5.71 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51¢ | $153 | $153 | +$0 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | +$0 | 52% 9014-8167 (17181) |
Invested
$548.43
Value
$534.79
PnL
-$13.64
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$535.72
Value
$522.4
PnL
-$13.32
Record
53%
2695-2376 (5071)
Invested
$229.71
Value
$224
PnL
-$5.71
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
VeryLucky888Invested
$153
Value
$153
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
9014-8167 (17181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.