Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 74¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$26.57
89.8¢ → 74¢
-18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97.9¢ | $916.69 | $691.91 | -$224.78 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Noavg 60¢ | $132.23 | $163.17 | +$30.94 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 67.5¢ | $213.56 | $161.03 | +$92.32 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.5¢ | $97.84 | $107.19 | +$9.35 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $68.09 | $53.84 | +$82.97 | |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $214.48 | $94.27 | +$174.12 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $38.35 | $25.6 | -$12.74 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
PT PT-S7<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $15.01 | $13.38 | +$2.52 | 49% 3284-3450 (6734) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 65.4¢ | $19.95 | $10.92 | +$3.37 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$916.69
Value
$691.91
PnL
-$224.78
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$132.23
Value
$163.17
PnL
+$30.94
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$213.56
Value
$161.03
PnL
+$92.32
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Both legs:
Invested
$214.48
Value
$94.27
PnL
+$174.12
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$38.35
Value
$25.6
PnL
-$12.74
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$15.01
Value
$13.38
PnL
+$2.52
Record
49%
3284-3450 (6734)
Invested
$19.95
Value
$10.92
PnL
+$3.37
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.