Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$900.85

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,468

Combined PnL+$568.18

Under6 traders

Total Value$994.3

Total Shares4,535

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JhonAlexanderHinestroza	Overavg 98.7¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$63.19	55% 1215-984 (2199)
RN1	Overavg 45.4¢	$614.38	$1.1K	+$461.06	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$1.8K	$990.26	-$813.98	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
dips.	Overavg 75¢	$95.17	$119.05	+$24.15	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 99¢	$96.57	$97.5	+$0.93	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 56¢	$28	$49.98	+$21.98	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$18.85	$22.11	+$3.26	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Overavg 74¢	$19.24	$12.87	-$6.37	48% 5549-6067 (11616)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$3.5	$3.21	-$0.29	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 42.9¢	$475.72	$0.55	-$475.17	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 39¢	$100.82	$0.13	-$100.69	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 39.5¢	$77.05	$0.1	-$76.95	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 2.4¢	$2	$0.04	-$1.96	59% 33715-23828 (57543)

JhonAlexanderHinestroza

Over

Invested

$4,988.86

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$63.19

Record

55%

1215-984 (2199)

RN1

Over

Invested

$614.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$461.06

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,804.24

Value

$990.26

PnL

-$813.98

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

dips.

Over

Invested

$95.17

Value

$119.05

PnL

+$24.15

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$96.57

Value

$97.5

PnL

+$0.93

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$28

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$21.98

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$18.85

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$3.26

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

SlickRick123<$100

Over

Invested

$19.24

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$6.37

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$0.29

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$475.72

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$475.17

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$100.82

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$100.69

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$77.05

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$76.95

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.96

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.