Spread: Wyoming (-6.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wyoming (33%) · Wyoming at 92¢ · $875 held · ended Nov 15

Wyoming92¢UTEP8¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wyoming

Consensus Traders

Wyoming 33%

Total Value

$874.75

Combined PnL

-$79.35

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 91.5¢

+71% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralWyoming at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wyoming92%

UTEP9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UTEP6 traders

Total Value$482.6

Total Shares1,129

Combined PnL-$12.29

Wyoming3 traders

Total Value$392.15

Total Shares853

Combined PnL-$67.06

UTEP — 67%Wyoming — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	UTEPavg 42¢	$331.38	$297.44	+$67.95	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
nigiri99	Wyomingavg 54¢	$267.84	$218.24	-$49.6	50% 663-658 (1321)
65 6512395314597884	Wyomingavg 54¢	$172.1	$153.07	-$19.03	50% 3988-3981 (7969)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	UTEPavg 46¢	$83.35	$94.22	+$10.87	48% 416-456 (872)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	UTEPavg 27¢	$25.04	$48.23	+$23.19	55% 1818-1517 (3335)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wyomingavg 44¢	$19.27	$20.84	+$1.57	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
PR primmCTR	UTEPavg 56¢	$133.28	$19.04	-$114.24	59% 1075-754 (1829)
RN1CTR<$100	UTEPavg 52.4¢	$18.63	$18.48	-$0.15	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	UTEPavg 51¢	$5.1	$5.2	+$0.1	48% 3662-4031 (7693)

VeryLucky888CTR

UTEP

Invested

$331.38

Value

$297.44

PnL

+$67.95

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

nigiri99

Wyoming

Invested

$267.84

Value

$218.24

PnL

-$49.6

Record

50%

663-658 (1321)

6512395314597884

Wyoming

Invested

$172.1

Value

$153.07

PnL

-$19.03

Record

50%

3988-3981 (7969)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$83.35

Value

$94.22

PnL

+$10.87

Record

48%

416-456 (872)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$25.04

Value

$48.23

PnL

+$23.19

Record

55%

1818-1517 (3335)

Pan9X<$100

Wyoming

Invested

$19.27

Value

$20.84

PnL

+$1.57

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

primmCTR

UTEP

Invested

$133.28

Value

$19.04

PnL

-$114.24

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

RN1CTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$18.63

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

38791873984189CTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

Research grade

NeutralWyoming at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wyoming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.