Spread: Wyoming (-20.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold UTEP (40%) · UTEP at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Wyoming6¢UTEP94¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UTEP

Consensus Traders

UTEP 40%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$401.21

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 94.5¢

+37% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUTEP at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UTEP

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wyoming6%

UTEP95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UTEP4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,565

Combined PnL-$193.34

Wyoming6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,677

Combined PnL+$594.55

UTEP — 40%Wyoming — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on UTEP. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWyoming 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedWyoming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Wyoming 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	UTEPavg 80¢	$1.4K	$804.3	-$556.71	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
PR primm	UTEPavg 47¢	$365.66	$735.21	+$369.55	59% 1099-762 (1861)
LI LimousinCTR	Wyomingavg 20¢	$202.02	$525.24	+$323.23	38% 1261-2087 (3348)
RN1CTR	Wyomingavg 53¢	$414.89	$414.69	-$0.2	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Wyomingavg 20¢	$72.41	$188.27	+$115.86	37% 1279-2142 (3421)
VE VenusianCTR	Wyomingavg 20¢	$49.58	$128.91	+$79.33	38% 1284-2117 (3401)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Wyomingavg 20¢	$48.68	$126.57	+$77.89	38% 1289-2093 (3382)
65 6512395314597884<$100	UTEPavg 51¢	$43.28	$42.94	-$0.34	50% 4001-3995 (7996)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Wyomingavg 52¢	$24.22	$22.67	-$1.55	55% 1909-1576 (3485)
GH ghorrock<$100	UTEPavg 80¢	$16.6	$10.76	-$5.84	52% 2195-1999 (4194)

38791873984189

UTEP

Invested

$1,370.62

Value

$804.3

PnL

-$556.71

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

primm

UTEP

Invested

$365.66

Value

$735.21

PnL

+$369.55

Record

59%

1099-762 (1861)

LimousinCTR

Wyoming

Invested

$202.02

Value

$525.24

PnL

+$323.23

Record

38%

1261-2087 (3348)

RN1CTR

Wyoming

Invested

$414.89

Value

$414.69

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

LightParadoxCTR

Wyoming

Invested

$72.41

Value

$188.27

PnL

+$115.86

Record

37%

1279-2142 (3421)

VenusianCTR

Wyoming

Invested

$49.58

Value

$128.91

PnL

+$79.33

Record

38%

1284-2117 (3401)

MadridTimeCTR

Wyoming

Invested

$48.68

Value

$126.57

PnL

+$77.89

Record

38%

1289-2093 (3382)

6512395314597884<$100

UTEP

Invested

$43.28

Value

$42.94

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

4001-3995 (7996)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Wyoming

Invested

$24.22

Value

$22.67

PnL

-$1.55

Record

55%

1909-1576 (3485)

ghorrock<$100

UTEP

Invested

$16.6

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$5.84

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

Research grade

NeutralUTEP at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UTEP

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on UTEP. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWyoming 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedWyoming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Wyoming 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UTEP wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.