Wyoming vs. UNLV

19 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Wyoming (86%) · Wyoming at 59¢ · $135K held · ended Nov 8

Wyoming59¢UNLV41¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Wyoming

Consensus Traders

Wyoming 86%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$135.3K

Combined PnL

$7.2K

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 58.5¢

+48% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

Research candidateWyoming at 59%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming

19 of 22 top traders (86%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wyoming59%

UNLV42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wyoming19 traders

Total Value$86.5K

Total Shares179,026

Combined PnL+$14.6K

UNLV3 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares49,656

Combined PnL$-7.3K

Wyoming — 86%UNLV — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Wyomingavg 39¢	$13.6K	$20.4K	+$6.8K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
65 6512395314597884	Wyomingavg 41.2¢	$12.1K	$16.3K	+$4.2K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	UNLVavg 59.1¢	$18.9K	$14.9K	$-4.0K	48% 405-446 (851)
BO BoggsFromShawshankARB<$100	Wyomingavg 39¢	$12.0K	$13.8K	+$1.8K	51% 1118-1077 (2195)
└ Wyoming leg	Wyomingavg 39¢	$6.8K	$10.3K	+$3.4K
└ UNLV leg	UNLVavg 60¢	$5.1K	$3.5K	$-1.6K
HI hi774c	Wyomingavg 39¢	$12.0K	$12.1K	+$153.73	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Wyomingavg 39¢	$10.5K	$10.5K	+$74.72	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
└ Wyoming leg	Wyomingavg 39¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$98.07
└ UNLV leg	UNLVavg 61¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$23.35
BO Bozos14	Wyomingavg 39¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$128.21	49% 148-152 (300)
CUTJALENHURTS	Wyomingavg 39¢	$5.8K	$6.8K	+$900	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
0xheavy888	Wyomingavg 39¢	$5.8K	$5.9K	+$75	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
IM imjustkenisghey	Wyomingavg 39¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$57.31	49% 451-468 (919)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	UNLVavg 61¢	$5.8K	$3.9K	$-1.9K	47% 535-611 (1146)
ME metski29CTR	UNLVavg 59.5¢	$4.8K	$3.4K	$-1.5K	45% 352-433 (785)
AP AppleTiime	Wyomingavg 39¢	$2.0K	$3.0K	+$997.05	49% 206-218 (424)
RN1	Wyomingavg 40.2¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$762.97	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
VeryLucky888	Wyomingavg 39¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$25.61	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
38 38791873984189	Wyomingavg 39¢	$3.1K	$1.3K	+$413.4	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
NM NM-PARB<$100	UNLVavg 60¢	$990	$1.0K	+$10	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ UNLV leg	UNLVavg 60¢	$600	$605	+$5
└ Wyoming leg	Wyomingavg 39¢	$390	$395	+$5
GC GC-PARB<$100	UNLVavg 60¢	$990	$1.0K	+$10	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ UNLV leg	UNLVavg 60¢	$600	$605	+$5
└ Wyoming leg	Wyomingavg 39¢	$390	$395	+$5
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Wyomingavg 40¢	$900	$978.75	+$78.75	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Wyomingavg 40.2¢	$266.14	$231.61	+$39.19	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Wyoming leg	Wyomingavg 40.2¢	$104.02	$151.52	+$59.88
└ UNLV leg	UNLVavg 53.7¢	$103.58	$80.1	-$20.69
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Wyomingavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
DA darkumbreon88	Wyomingavg 39¢	$183.06	$185.41	+$2.35	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
GH ghorrock	Wyomingavg 39¢	$150.83	$152.81	+$1.98	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Wyomingavg 59¢	$99.71	$98.87	-$0.84	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
13 13897651<$100	Wyomingavg 54¢	$43.2	$46.8	+$3.6	56% 8963-7033 (15996)

ferrariChampions2026

Wyoming

Invested

$13,620.61

Value

$20.4K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

6512395314597884

Wyoming

Invested

$12,064.62

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

UNLV

Invested

$18,900.97

Value

$14.9K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

BoggsFromShawshankARB<$100

Wyoming

Invested

$11,969.57

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

51%

1118-1077 (2195)

Both legs:

Wyoming$6,843.9739¢+$3.4K

UNLV$5,125.660¢$-1.6K

hi774c

Wyoming

Invested

$11,993.83

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$153.73

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Wyoming

Invested

$10,472.4

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$74.72

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Both legs:

Wyoming$7,623.439¢+$98.07

UNLV$2,84961¢-$23.35

Bozos14

Wyoming

Invested

$10,000

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$128.21

Record

49%

148-152 (300)

CUTJALENHURTS

Wyoming

Invested

$5,850

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$900

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

0xheavy888

Wyoming

Invested

$5,850

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$75

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

imjustkenisghey

Wyoming

Invested

$4,470.49

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$57.31

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

UNLV

Invested

$5,794.34

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

metski29CTR

UNLV

Invested

$4,850

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

45%

352-433 (785)

AppleTiime

Wyoming

Invested

$1,994.09

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$997.05

Record

49%

206-218 (424)

RN1

Wyoming

Invested

$1,673.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$762.97

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

VeryLucky888

Wyoming

Invested

$1,950

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$25.61

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

38791873984189

Wyoming

Invested

$3,090.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$413.4

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

NM-PARB<$100

UNLV

Invested

$990

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Invested

$990

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

UNLV$60060¢+$5

Wyoming$39039¢+$5

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Wyoming

Invested

$900

Value

$978.75

PnL

+$78.75

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

Pan9XARB<$100

Wyoming

Invested

$266.14

Value

$231.61

PnL

+$39.19

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Wyoming$104.0240.2¢+$59.88

UNLV$103.5853.7¢-$20.69

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Wyoming

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

darkumbreon88

Wyoming

Invested

$183.06

Value

$185.41

PnL

+$2.35

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

ghorrock

Wyoming

Invested

$150.83

Value

$152.81

PnL

+$1.98

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

BillBenter2026<$100

Wyoming

Invested

$99.71

Value

$98.87

PnL

-$0.84

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

13897651<$100

Wyoming

Invested

$43.2

Value

$46.8

PnL

+$3.6

Record

56%

8963-7033 (15996)

Research grade

Research candidateWyoming at 59%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming

19 of 22 top traders (86%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wyoming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.