Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Texas Tech, while the market favors West Virginia (68%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Texas Tech (-17.5)
11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (73%) · Texas Tech at 33¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Texas Tech
15
Texas Tech 73%
2 arb excluded
$11.3K
$201.39
43.4¢ → 32.5¢
-25% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexas Tech at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors West Virginia 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR | Texas Techavg 44¢ | $3.5K | $3.8K | +$43.16 | 49% 451-468 (919) |
 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR | Texas Techavg 47¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$138.86 | 55% 3129-2517 (5646) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Texas Techavg 24¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$265.35 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
| └ Texas Tech leg | Texas Techavg 24¢ | $596.25 | $732.95 | +$136.7 | |
| └ West Virginia leg | West Virginiaavg 55¢ | $456.5 | $585.15 | +$128.65 | |
CM cm2897ARB<$100 | Texas Techavg 32.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$104.61 | 51% 2230-2185 (4415) |
| └ Texas Tech leg | Texas Techavg 32.7¢ | $833.85 | $753.26 | -$80.59 | |
| └ West Virginia leg | West Virginiaavg 75.2¢ | $383.8 | $359.78 | -$24.02 | |
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | West Virginiaavg 55.7¢ | $715.02 | $962.05 | +$160.34 | 47% 535-611 (1146) |
 alpheclabs2CTR | Texas Techavg 24¢ | $240 | $295 | +$55 | 47% 1366-1547 (2913) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Texas Techavg 45¢ | $270 | $267 | -$3 | 51% 2062-2000 (4062) |
 nigiri99 | West Virginiaavg 56.7¢ | $9.65 | $197.4 | +$13.16 | 46% 8770-10464 (19234) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Texas Techavg 45¢ | $166.12 | $190.02 | +$23.9 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Texas Techavg 46¢ | $159.87 | $152.92 | -$5.21 | 54% 18557-15589 (34146) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Texas Techavg 45¢ | $146.92 | $152.65 | +$5.72 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Texas Techavg 24¢ | $85.76 | $103.29 | +$17.52 | 56% 8738-6795 (15533) |
NM NM-P<$100 | West Virginiaavg 55¢ | $77.11 | $95.34 | +$18.23 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Texas Techavg 26¢ | $52 | $59 | +$7 | 51% 5014-4884 (9898) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | West Virginiaavg 59.7¢ | $49.55 | $58.2 | +$8.65 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Texas Techavg 47.8¢ | $28.97 | $26.69 | -$2.28 | 54% 542-460 (1002) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Texas Techavg 34.9¢ | $13.95 | $12 | -$1.95 | 53% 12378-10927 (23305) |
Invested
$3,546.84
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$43.16
Record
49%
451-468 (919)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTRInvested
$2,610.54
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$138.86
Record
55%
3129-2517 (5646)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,052.75
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$265.35
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,217.65
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$104.61
Record
51%
2230-2185 (4415)
Both legs:
Invested
$715.02
Value
$962.05
PnL
+$160.34
Record
47%
535-611 (1146)
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$240
Value
$295
PnL
+$55
Record
47%
1366-1547 (2913)
Invested
$270
Value
$267
PnL
-$3
Record
51%
2062-2000 (4062)
nigiri99Invested
$9.65
Value
$197.4
PnL
+$13.16
Record
46%
8770-10464 (19234)
Invested
$166.12
Value
$190.02
PnL
+$23.9
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$159.87
Value
$152.92
PnL
-$5.21
Record
54%
18557-15589 (34146)
Invested
$146.92
Value
$152.65
PnL
+$5.72
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$85.76
Value
$103.29
PnL
+$17.52
Record
56%
8738-6795 (15533)
Invested
$77.11
Value
$95.34
PnL
+$18.23
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$52
Value
$59
PnL
+$7
Record
51%
5014-4884 (9898)
Invested
$49.55
Value
$58.2
PnL
+$8.65
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$28.97
Value
$26.69
PnL
-$2.28
Record
54%
542-460 (1002)
Invested
$13.95
Value
$12
PnL
-$1.95
Record
53%
12378-10927 (23305)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
imjustkenisghey
CTRTexas Tech — $3.8K
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319
CTRTexas Tech — $2.5K
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
cm2897
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186
West Virginia — $962.05
alpheclabs2
CTRTexas Tech — $295
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
CTRTexas Tech — $267
nigiri99
West Virginia — $197.4
SnakeBall
CTRTexas Tech — $190.02
HomeRunHazard
CTRTexas Tech — $152.92