Spread: Texas Tech (-15.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (46%) · Texas Tech at 60¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Texas Tech60¢West Virginia40¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas Tech

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$514.99

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 59.5¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas Tech60%

West Virginia41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Tech6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,488

Combined PnL+$431.16

West Virginia7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,500

Combined PnL+$83.84

Texas Tech — 46%West Virginia — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Texas Techavg 50.7¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$414.87	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
HI hi774cCTR	West Virginiaavg 49¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$285.79	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	West Virginiaavg 55¢	$982.7	$753.67	-$229.03	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
RN1	Texas Techavg 59¢	$473.04	$477.04	+$4.01	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
HO HomeRunHazard	Texas Techavg 49.3¢	$395.81	$366.02	-$30.04	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	West Virginiaavg 48.7¢	$919.42	$327.84	+$2.22	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ West Virginia leg	West Virginiaavg 48.7¢	$263.28	$218.88	-$7.88
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 54¢	$98.86	$108.95	+$10.1
AU Aurelius7	Texas Techavg 55.2¢	$358.05	$327.31	-$30.74	47% 274-313 (587)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Texas Techavg 45.2¢	$231.36	$304.26	+$72.9	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
SN SnakeBallCTR	West Virginiaavg 46¢	$227.47	$244.78	+$17.31	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
NM NM-PCTR	West Virginiaavg 49¢	$171.5	$190.75	+$19.25	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	West Virginiaavg 49¢	$171.5	$171.5	+$0	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
PR primmCTR	West Virginiaavg 43¢	$144.91	$138.17	-$6.74	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Texas Techavg 48.7¢	$103.41	$64.69	-$5.8	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 48.7¢	$36.06	$44.03	+$7.97
└ West Virginia leg	West Virginiaavg 58.6¢	$29.87	$20.66	-$13.77
VI vibing123CTR<$100	West Virginiaavg 43¢	$58.96	$56.22	-$2.74	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Texas Techavg 55¢	$3.63	$3.79	+$0.16	51% 5014-4884 (9898)

ferrariChampions2026

Texas Tech

Invested

$2,395.53

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$414.87

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

hi774cCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$1,037.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$285.79

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

justaluckydudeCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$982.7

Value

$753.67

PnL

-$229.03

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

RN1

Texas Tech

Invested

$473.04

Value

$477.04

PnL

+$4.01

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

HomeRunHazard

Texas Tech

Invested

$395.81

Value

$366.02

PnL

-$30.04

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

38791873984189ARB<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$919.42

Value

$327.84

PnL

+$2.22

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

West Virginia$263.2848.7¢-$7.88

Texas Tech$98.8654¢+$10.1

Aurelius7

Texas Tech

Invested

$358.05

Value

$327.31

PnL

-$30.74

Record

47%

274-313 (587)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Texas Tech

Invested

$231.36

Value

$304.26

PnL

+$72.9

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

SnakeBallCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$227.47

Value

$244.78

PnL

+$17.31

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

NM-PCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$171.5

Value

$190.75

PnL

+$19.25

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$171.5

Value

$171.5

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

primmCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$144.91

Value

$138.17

PnL

-$6.74

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

Pan9XARB<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$103.41

Value

$64.69

PnL

-$5.8

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Texas Tech$36.0648.7¢+$7.97

West Virginia$29.8758.6¢-$13.77

vibing123CTR<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$58.96

Value

$56.22

PnL

-$2.74

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

6512395314597884<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$3.63

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$0.16

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.