Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Western Michigan vs. Akron: O/U 49.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 48¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 11

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

-$200.47

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$22.4K

Total Shares46,603

Combined PnL-$201.06

Over2 traders

Total Value$26.08

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$0.59

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 48.2¢	$10.3K	$10.1K	-$145.32	47% 500-558 (1058)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 47.8¢	$8.7K	$8.5K	-$58.11	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$27.98	51% 252-247 (499)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 48¢	$200.64	$204.82	+$4.18	8% 37-420 (457)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 49¢	$196	$196	+$0	9% 81-778 (859)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$171.5	$183.75	+$12.25	16% 66-348 (414)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$171.5	$183.75	+$12.25	60% 3442-2336 (5778)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 47¢	$159.64	$161.33	+$1.7	47% 148-167 (315)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 51¢	$22.01	$22.64	+$0.63	48% 927-1003 (1930)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 48¢	$3.48	$3.44	-$0.04	26% 229-666 (895)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.38	-$0.02	68% 1592-742 (2334)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$10,252.36

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$145.32

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$8,714.05

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$58.11

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$2,877.57

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$27.98

Record

51%

252-247 (499)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$200.64

Value

$204.82

PnL

+$4.18

Record

37-420 (457)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$196

Value

$196

PnL

+$0

Record

81-778 (859)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$171.5

Value

$183.75

PnL

+$12.25

Record

16%

66-348 (414)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$171.5

Value

$183.75

PnL

+$12.25

Record

60%

3442-2336 (5778)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$159.64

Value

$161.33

PnL

+$1.7

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$22.01

Value

$22.64

PnL

+$0.63

Record

48%

927-1003 (1930)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$3.48

Value

$3.44

PnL

-$0.04

Record

26%

229-666 (895)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

68%

1592-742 (2334)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.