Spread: Western Michigan (-13.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan (33%) · Western Michigan at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Western Michigan
6
Western Michigan 33%
$7.3K
$2.33
55¢ → 56.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralWestern Michigan at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Western Michiganavg 55¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$106.93 | 47% 500-558 (1058) |
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR | Akronavg 45¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$105.58 | — 3-6 (9) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Western Michiganavg 53.6¢ | $69.35 | $72.9 | +$3.55 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Akronavg 46¢ | $72.19 | $70.62 | -$1.57 | 25% 213-642 (855) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Akronavg 46¢ | $46 | $45 | -$1 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Akronavg 45¢ | $2.88 | $2.88 | +$0 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
Invested
$3,920.81
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$106.93
Record
47%
500-558 (1058)
Invested
$3,167.45
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$105.58
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$69.35
Value
$72.9
PnL
+$3.55
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$72.19
Value
$70.62
PnL
-$1.57
Record
25%
213-642 (855)
Invested
$46
Value
$45
PnL
-$1
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.