Wisconsin vs. Maryland: O/U 35.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 54¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over54¢Under46¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$144.98

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 53.5¢

-18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,866

Combined PnL-$162.18

Under6 traders

Total Value$677.14

Total Shares1,883

Combined PnL+$17.2

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 65.4¢	$1.1K	$914.66	-$163.04	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1CTR	Underavg 34¢	$270.32	$283.27	+$12.95	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 35.9¢	$186.52	$184.52	-$2.01	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 34¢	$135.18	$141.16	+$5.98	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 66¢	$104.74	$104.74	+$0	47% 540-597 (1137)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$47.27	$47.27	+$0	37% 977-1669 (2646)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$19.8	$20.02	+$0.22	43% 182-242 (424)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Overavg 66¢	$22.61	$19.01	-$3.6	47% 99-111 (210)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 55¢	$21.51	$12.78	+$4.32	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 55¢	$5.5	$5.65	+$0.15	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$0.86	$0.91	+$0.05	48% 3231-3545 (6776)

primm

Over

Invested

$1,077.7

Value

$914.66

PnL

-$163.04

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$270.32

Value

$283.27

PnL

+$12.95

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$186.52

Value

$184.52

PnL

-$2.01

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$135.18

Value

$141.16

PnL

+$5.98

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$104.74

Value

$104.74

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.27

Value

$47.27

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.8

Value

$20.02

PnL

+$0.22

Record

43%

182-242 (424)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Over

Invested

$22.61

Value

$19.01

PnL

-$3.6

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$21.51

Value

$12.78

PnL

+$4.32

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.