Spread: Wisconsin (-7.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wisconsin (70%) · Wisconsin at 76¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 14

Wisconsin76¢Maryland24¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wisconsin

Consensus Traders

Wisconsin 70%

Total Value

$22.0K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 75.5¢

+46% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wisconsin76%

Maryland25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wisconsin7 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares19,953

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Maryland3 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares17,778

Combined PnL-$710.87

Wisconsin — 70%Maryland — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWisconsin 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWisconsin 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Wisconsin 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Wisconsinavg 51¢	$9.8K	$13.4K	+$3.6K	49% 635-674 (1309)
PR primmCTR	Marylandavg 49¢	$8.4K	$7.7K	-$685.35	59% 931-653 (1584)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Marylandavg 49¢	$293.5	$269.54	-$23.96	47% 99-111 (210)
38 38791873984189	Wisconsinavg 70¢	$296.16	$248.08	-$7.08	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
65 6512395314597884	Wisconsinavg 70¢	$140	$140	+$0	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
VeryLucky888	Wisconsinavg 50¢	$77.02	$107.83	+$30.81	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wisconsinavg 64.8¢	$73.1	$43	+$4.05	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
RN1<$100	Wisconsinavg 66.2¢	$40.23	$42.51	+$2.28	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Marylandavg 49¢	$19.11	$17.55	-$1.56	54% 286-244 (530)
GH ghorrock<$100	Wisconsinavg 51¢	$5.14	$7.06	+$1.92	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

Multicoloured-Serf

Wisconsin

Invested

$9,752.09

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

primmCTR

Maryland

Invested

$8,398.39

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$685.35

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Maryland

Invested

$293.5

Value

$269.54

PnL

-$23.96

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

38791873984189

Wisconsin

Invested

$296.16

Value

$248.08

PnL

-$7.08

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

6512395314597884

Wisconsin

Invested

$140

Value

$140

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

VeryLucky888

Wisconsin

Invested

$77.02

Value

$107.83

PnL

+$30.81

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

Pan9X<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$73.1

Value

$43

PnL

+$4.05

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

RN1<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$40.23

Value

$42.51

PnL

+$2.28

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Maryland

Invested

$19.11

Value

$17.55

PnL

-$1.56

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

ghorrock<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$5.14

Value

$7.06

PnL

+$1.92

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWisconsin 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWisconsin 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Wisconsin 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wisconsin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.