Spread: Wisconsin (-5.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Maryland (44%) · Maryland at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Wisconsin7¢Maryland93¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maryland

Consensus Traders

Maryland 44%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 93.5¢

+104% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaryland at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maryland

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wisconsin7%

Maryland94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maryland4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,966

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Wisconsin5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,602

Combined PnL-$296.93

Maryland — 44%Wisconsin — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Marylandavg 40.4¢	$989.99	$2.3K	+$1.3K	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1CTR	Wisconsinavg 59¢	$960.28	$912.08	-$48.2	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
dips.	Marylandavg 81¢	$324	$372	+$48	47% 993-1122 (2115)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Wisconsinavg 61.6¢	$590.12	$316	-$255.13	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Wisconsinavg 20.7¢	$193.67	$73.51	+$20.84	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Wisconsinavg 59.9¢	$95.12	$33.37	-$13.75	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
LI LightParadox<$100	Marylandavg 39¢	$30.33	$32.66	+$2.33	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Marylandavg 40.2¢	$15.98	$16.69	+$0.71	47% 99-111 (210)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Wisconsinavg 64¢	$6.33	$5.64	-$0.69	37% 1063-1799 (2862)

primm

Maryland

Invested

$989.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1CTR

Wisconsin

Invested

$960.28

Value

$912.08

PnL

-$48.2

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

dips.

Maryland

Invested

$324

Value

$372

PnL

+$48

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

6512395314597884CTR

Wisconsin

Invested

$590.12

Value

$316

PnL

-$255.13

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Wisconsin

Invested

$193.67

Value

$73.51

PnL

+$20.84

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$95.12

Value

$33.37

PnL

-$13.75

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

LightParadox<$100

Maryland

Invested

$30.33

Value

$32.66

PnL

+$2.33

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Maryland

Invested

$15.98

Value

$16.69

PnL

+$0.71

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$6.33

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$0.69

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Research grade

NeutralMaryland at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Maryland

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maryland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.