Spread: Wisconsin (-3.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wisconsin (50%) · Wisconsin at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Wisconsin62¢Maryland38¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wisconsin

Consensus Traders

Wisconsin 50%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$13.15

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 61.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wisconsin62%

Maryland39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wisconsin5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,944

Combined PnL-$3.6

Maryland5 traders

Total Value$978.08

Total Shares2,391

Combined PnL-$9.55

Wisconsin — 50%Maryland — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaryland 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Wisconsin 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Wisconsinavg 60¢	$500.8	$496.42	-$4.38	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
PR primmCTR	Marylandavg 39.5¢	$483.6	$471.24	-$12.36	59% 931-653 (1584)
38 38791873984189	Wisconsinavg 65¢	$425.79	$425.79	-$0	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
65 6512395314597884	Wisconsinavg 61.5¢	$246	$238	-$8	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
VE VenusianCTR	Marylandavg 35¢	$232.8	$232.8	+$0	37% 968-1674 (2642)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Marylandavg 56¢	$235.5	$232.57	-$2.92	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Marylandavg 35¢	$33.25	$38.95	+$5.7	37% 985-1642 (2627)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wisconsinavg 65¢	$29.25	$38.03	+$8.77	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
GH ghorrock<$100	Wisconsinavg 65¢	$6.55	$6.55	+$0	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Marylandavg 38¢	$2.48	$2.51	+$0.03	47% 99-111 (210)

RN1

Wisconsin

Invested

$500.8

Value

$496.42

PnL

-$4.38

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

primmCTR

Maryland

Invested

$483.6

Value

$471.24

PnL

-$12.36

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

38791873984189

Wisconsin

Invested

$425.79

Value

$425.79

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

6512395314597884

Wisconsin

Invested

$246

Value

$238

PnL

-$8

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

VenusianCTR

Maryland

Invested

$232.8

Value

$232.8

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Maryland

Invested

$235.5

Value

$232.57

PnL

-$2.92

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Maryland

Invested

$33.25

Value

$38.95

PnL

+$5.7

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

Pan9X<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$29.25

Value

$38.03

PnL

+$8.77

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

ghorrock<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$6.55

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Maryland

Invested

$2.48

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaryland 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Wisconsin 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wisconsin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.