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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Wisconsin — but Maryland won instead.

Spread: Wisconsin (-2.5)

Resolved Maryland. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Wisconsin. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Wisconsin 75%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$24.66

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

7 of 9 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wisconsin0%

Maryland100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maryland2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,489

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Wisconsin7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,522

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Maryland — 22%Wisconsin — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Marylandavg 30¢	$613.35	$2.0K	+$1.4K	59% 932-653 (1585)
38 38791873984189CTR	Wisconsinavg 70.5¢	$571.13	—	-$571.13	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
RN1CTR	Wisconsinavg 70¢	$539.7	—	-$539.7	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Wisconsinavg 70¢	$350	—	-$350	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Wisconsinavg 70¢	$280	—	-$280	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
LI Limousin	Marylandavg 29¢	$128.77	$444.03	+$315.26	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Wisconsinavg 70¢	$28.7	—	-$23.1	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Wisconsinavg 71¢	$7.16	—	-$7.16	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Wisconsinavg 50¢	$800	—	+$0	69% 134-60 (194)

Invested

$613.35

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$571.13

Value

—

PnL

-$571.13

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

Invested

$539.7

Value

—

PnL

-$539.7

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Invested

$350

Value

—

PnL

-$350

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

6512395314597884CTR

Invested

$280

Value

—

PnL

-$280

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

Invested

$128.77

Value

$444.03

PnL

+$315.26

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

Invested

$28.7

Value

—

PnL

-$23.1

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$7.16

Value

—

PnL

-$7.16

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Invested

$800

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

134-60 (194)

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

7 of 9 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5f5539d6...8e6ee5

Slug

cfb-wisc-mary-2026-11-14-spread-away-2pt5

Traders in this Market

primm

Maryland — $2.0K

38791873984189

Wisconsin — $0

RN1

Wisconsin — $0

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Wisconsin — $0

6512395314597884

Wisconsin — $0

Limousin

Maryland — $444.03

Pan9X

Wisconsin — $0

ghorrock

Wisconsin — $0

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Wisconsin — $0

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