Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Maryland, while the market favors Wisconsin (51%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Wisconsin (-16.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Maryland (56%) · Maryland at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Wisconsin51¢Maryland49¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maryland

Consensus Traders

Maryland 56%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$4.74

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 49.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaryland at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maryland

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Wisconsin 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wisconsin51%

Maryland50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maryland5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,212

Combined PnL-$248.18

Wisconsin4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,973

Combined PnL+$243.44

Maryland — 56%Wisconsin — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Maryland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWisconsin 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Maryland 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Marylandavg 48.6¢	$696.38	$666.22	-$30.15	47% 540-597 (1137)
MA MadridTime	Wisconsinavg 32.3¢	$311.3	$515.16	+$203.86	37% 985-1642 (2627)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Wisconsinavg 51.5¢	$454.61	$472.27	+$17.65	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
38 38791873984189CTR	Marylandavg 61.3¢	$464.39	$352.2	-$112.19	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
LI LightParadox<$100	Wisconsinavg 33¢	$40.02	$61.85	+$21.83	37% 977-1669 (2646)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Marylandavg 68¢	$54.52	$10.54	-$8.99	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Marylandavg 67¢	$6.75	$4.9	-$1.85	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Wisconsinavg 52¢	$3.16	$3.25	+$0.09	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Marylandavg 68¢	$595	$2	-$95	55% 1630-1336 (2966)

justaluckydudeCTR

Maryland

Invested

$696.38

Value

$666.22

PnL

-$30.15

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

MadridTime

Wisconsin

Invested

$311.3

Value

$515.16

PnL

+$203.86

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Wisconsin

Invested

$454.61

Value

$472.27

PnL

+$17.65

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

38791873984189CTR

Maryland

Invested

$464.39

Value

$352.2

PnL

-$112.19

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

LightParadox<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$40.02

Value

$61.85

PnL

+$21.83

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Maryland

Invested

$54.52

Value

$10.54

PnL

-$8.99

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maryland

Invested

$6.75

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$1.85

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

6512395314597884<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Maryland

Invested

$595

Value

PnL

-$95

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Research grade

NeutralMaryland at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Maryland

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Wisconsin 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Maryland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWisconsin 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Maryland 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maryland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.