Wisconsin vs. Maryland

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wisconsin (78%) · Wisconsin at 75¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 14

Wisconsin75¢Maryland25¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wisconsin

Consensus Traders

Wisconsin 78%

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

$50.93

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 74.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wisconsin75%

Maryland26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wisconsin7 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares16,655

Combined PnL+$135.28

Maryland2 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares16,870

Combined PnL-$84.35

Wisconsin — 78%Maryland — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWisconsin 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedWisconsin 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wisconsin 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Wisconsinavg 74¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$48.93	22% 179-618 (797)
HO HomeRunHazard	Wisconsinavg 74¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$44.4	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Marylandavg 26¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$57.69	6% 11-176 (187)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Wisconsinavg 74¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$13.21	49% 635-674 (1309)
38 38791873984189	Wisconsinavg 74¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.02	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Marylandavg 26¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$26.66	45% 260-317 (577)
VeryLucky888	Wisconsinavg 74¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$11.56	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
PL pltrkr111	Wisconsinavg 74¢	$999.99	$1.0K	+$6.76	4% 23-537 (560)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Wisconsinavg 74¢	$59.2	$59.6	+$0.4	54% 286-244 (530)

hi774c

Wisconsin

Invested

$3,621.03

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$48.93

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

HomeRunHazard

Wisconsin

Invested

$3,174.56

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$44.4

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Maryland

Invested

$2,999.88

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$57.69

Record

11-176 (187)

Multicoloured-Serf

Wisconsin

Invested

$1,955.68

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$13.21

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

38791873984189

Wisconsin

Invested

$1,483.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.02

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

Forecastication2CTR

Maryland

Invested

$1,386.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$26.66

Record

45%

260-317 (577)

VeryLucky888

Wisconsin

Invested

$1,484.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$11.56

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

pltrkr111

Wisconsin

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.76

Record

23-537 (560)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$59.2

Value

$59.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWisconsin 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedWisconsin 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wisconsin 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wisconsin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.