Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Washington vs. Michigan State: O/U 41.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 48¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$414.23

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 47.5¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares6,243

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares6,028

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM imjustkenisghey	Underavg 44.9¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$1.0K	42% 45-61 (106)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 55¢	$2.6K	$1.2K	$-1.4K	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 39.1¢	$265.87	$598.21	+$332.35	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 42.4¢	$203.34	$422.11	+$218.76	50% 3954-3949 (7903)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 61.8¢	$579.56	$112.56	-$467	59% 1044-726 (1770)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Overavg 58¢	$111.36	$48	-$63.36	53% 348-313 (661)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 38¢	$14.44	$33.44	+$19	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
RN1<$100	Underavg 38¢	$14.48	$19.34	+$4.86	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$40.81	$18.55	-$22.26	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$2.52	$1.21	-$1.31	55% 1770-1448 (3218)

imjustkenisghey

Under

Invested

$2,257.65

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

42%

45-61 (106)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,647.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$265.87

Value

$598.21

PnL

+$332.35

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$203.34

Value

$422.11

PnL

+$218.76

Record

50%

3954-3949 (7903)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$579.56

Value

$112.56

PnL

-$467

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Over

Invested

$111.36

Value

$48

PnL

-$63.36

Record

53%

348-313 (661)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$14.44

Value

$33.44

PnL

+$19

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$14.48

Value

$19.34

PnL

+$4.86

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.81

Value

$18.55

PnL

-$22.26

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.52

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$1.31

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.