Wake Forest vs. SMU: O/U 71.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 60¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 14

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 59.5¢

-18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares11,263

Combined PnL-$666.95

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares11,618

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 72.3¢	$6.7K	$6.5K	-$169.86	59% 931-653 (1584)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Overavg 27¢	$2.0K	$3.8K	+$1.8K	52% 2645-2472 (5117)
VI vibing123	Underavg 73.7¢	$1.5K	$958.38	-$497.35	62% 1138-702 (1840)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 28¢	$383.19	$509.75	+$126.56	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
RN1CTR	Overavg 28.5¢	$466.37	$465.79	-$0.58	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 27.8¢	$205.75	$188.86	-$16.89	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 28.2¢	$125.2	$147.56	+$22.36	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 29.2¢	$69.22	$60.44	-$8.78	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 41.2¢	$40.79	$53.94	+$13.14	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Underavg 68¢	$7.12	$7.38	+$0.26	47% 99-111 (210)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$5.2	$5.1	-$0.1	52% 833-779 (1612)

primm

Under

Invested

$6,709.72

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$169.86

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Over

Invested

$2,013.84

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

52%

2645-2472 (5117)

vibing123

Under

Invested

$1,455.74

Value

$958.38

PnL

-$497.35

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$383.19

Value

$509.75

PnL

+$126.56

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$466.37

Value

$465.79

PnL

-$0.58

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$205.75

Value

$188.86

PnL

-$16.89

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$125.2

Value

$147.56

PnL

+$22.36

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.22

Value

$60.44

PnL

-$8.78

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.79

Value

$53.94

PnL

+$13.14

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Under

Invested

$7.12

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.26

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.