Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (63%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wake Forest vs. SMU: O/U 65.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 38¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$6.14

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 37.5¢

-33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,378

Combined PnL-$103.19

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,342

Combined PnL+$109.32

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Underavg 55.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$96.91	59% 931-653 (1584)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 42¢	$374.9	$504.33	+$129.43	46% 497-591 (1088)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 57.5¢	$439.85	$432.74	-$7.11	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.5¢	$263.85	$254.74	-$9.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$176	$178	+$2
RN1	Overavg 44¢	$371.33	$375.55	+$4.22	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 43.8¢	$666.95	$228.59	-$7.23	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$69	$66.63	-$2.37	52% 833-779 (1612)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$40.37	$36.47	-$3.9	47% 99-111 (210)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$67.47	$29.43	-$10.73	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
CM cm2897<$100	Overavg 46¢	$27.14	$24.78	-$2.36	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 43¢	$16.43	$12.42	-$4.01	55% 1630-1336 (2966)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$1,233.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$96.91

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$374.9

Value

$504.33

PnL

+$129.43

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$439.85

Value

$432.74

PnL

-$7.11

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Both legs:

Under$263.8557.5¢-$9.11

Over$17644¢+$2

RN1

Over

Invested

$371.33

Value

$375.55

PnL

+$4.22

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$666.95

Value

$228.59

PnL

-$7.23

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69

Value

$66.63

PnL

-$2.37

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.37

Value

$36.47

PnL

-$3.9

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$67.47

Value

$29.43

PnL

-$10.73

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

cm2897<$100

Over

Invested

$27.14

Value

$24.78

PnL

-$2.36

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$16.43

Value

$12.42

PnL

-$4.01

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.