Wake Forest vs. SMU: O/U 61.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (69%) · Over at 69¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over69¢Under31¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 69%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$81.01

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 69¢

+33% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,523

Combined PnL+$12.15

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,148

Combined PnL-$93.16

Over — 69%Under — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 56¢	$888.26	$896.19	+$7.93	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 44¢	$860.75	$753.16	-$107.59	59% 931-653 (1584)
DA DanielsDixonCTR	Underavg 54¢	$539.99	$554.99	+$15	21% 16-62 (78)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 46¢	$329.32	$329.72	+$0.4	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
LI Limousin	Overavg 46¢	$230	$230	-$0	36% 950-1657 (2607)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 56¢	$224	$226	+$2	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 46¢	$103.96	$100.57	-$3.39	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$66.06	$69.18	+$3.12	45% 14-17 (31)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$29.45	$25.77	-$3.68	47% 99-111 (210)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 54.6¢	$24.02	$24.86	+$0.84	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 56¢	$20.72	$21.28	+$0.55	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 47¢	$12.69	$16.61	+$3.92	54% 286-244 (530)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.6	-$0.1	37% 968-1674 (2642)

RN1

Over

Invested

$888.26

Value

$896.19

PnL

+$7.93

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$860.75

Value

$753.16

PnL

-$107.59

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

DanielsDixonCTR

Under

Invested

$539.99

Value

$554.99

PnL

+$15

Record

21%

16-62 (78)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$329.32

Value

$329.72

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$230

Value

$230

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$224

Value

$226

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$103.96

Value

$100.57

PnL

-$3.39

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.06

Value

$69.18

PnL

+$3.12

Record

45%

14-17 (31)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.45

Value

$25.77

PnL

-$3.68

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$24.02

Value

$24.86

PnL

+$0.84

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$20.72

Value

$21.28

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$12.69

Value

$16.61

PnL

+$3.92

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.