Spread: SMU (-1.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Wake Forest (25%) · Wake Forest at 83¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

SMU18¢Wake Forest82¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wake Forest

Consensus Traders

Wake Forest 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$999.44

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 82.5¢

+47% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralWake Forest at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wake Forest

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

SMU18%

Wake Forest83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wake Forest3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,426

Combined PnL+$139.05

SMU9 traders

Total Value$777.56

Total Shares4,166

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Wake Forest — 25%SMU — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Wake Forest. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSMU 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSMU 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSMU 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000SMU 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Wake Forestavg 56.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$27.63	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1CTR	SMUavg 43.5¢	$721.23	$290.15	-$431.08	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	SMUavg 51¢	$603.2	$206.98	-$396.22	59% 1135-781 (1916)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	SMUavg 43¢	$267.3	$108.82	-$158.48	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Wake Forestavg 50¢	$97	$103.58	+$6.58	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
└ Wake Forest leg	Wake Forestavg 50¢	$72	$82.08	+$10.08
└ SMU leg	SMUavg 50¢	$25	$21.5	-$3.5
38 38791873984189	Wake Forestavg 49¢	$709.51	$101.87	+$112.02	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
65 6512395314597884CTR	SMUavg 43.5¢	$174	$70	-$104	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Wake Forestavg 57.5¢	$70.4	$69.81	-$0.59	47% 99-111 (210)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	SMUavg 49¢	$75.46	$66.22	-$9.24	48% 293-321 (614)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	SMUavg 43.2¢	$42.8	$16.65	-$6.55	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	SMUavg 53¢	$49.07	$16.2	-$32.87	4% 17-391 (408)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	SMUavg 49¢	$96.84	$1.66	+$1.67	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	SMUavg 52¢	$2.6	$0.88	-$1.73	56% 3687-2847 (6534)

primm

Wake Forest

Invested

$2,355.57

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$27.63

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1CTR

SMU

Invested

$721.23

Value

$290.15

PnL

-$431.08

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

SMU

Invested

$603.2

Value

$206.98

PnL

-$396.22

Record

59%

1135-781 (1916)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

SMU

Invested

$267.3

Value

$108.82

PnL

-$158.48

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

NM-PARB<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$97

Value

$103.58

PnL

+$6.58

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

Both legs:

Wake Forest$7250¢+$10.08

SMU$2550¢-$3.5

38791873984189

Wake Forest

Invested

$709.51

Value

$101.87

PnL

+$112.02

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

6512395314597884CTR

SMU

Invested

$174

Value

$70

PnL

-$104

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$70.4

Value

$69.81

PnL

-$0.59

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$75.46

Value

$66.22

PnL

-$9.24

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

Pan9XCTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$42.8

Value

$16.65

PnL

-$6.55

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$49.07

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$32.87

Record

17-391 (408)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$96.84

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$1.67

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$2.6

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$1.73

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Research grade

NeutralWake Forest at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wake Forest

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Wake Forest. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSMU 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSMU 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSMU 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000SMU 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wake Forest wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.