Spread: Wake Forest (-10.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Wake Forest (45%) · Wake Forest at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Wake Forest>99¢SMU<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wake Forest

Consensus Traders

Wake Forest 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$432.83

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 99.6¢

+104% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralWake Forest at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wake Forest

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wake Forest100%

SMU0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wake Forest5 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,305

Combined PnL+$1.3K

SMU6 traders

Total Value$430.03

Total Shares2,880

Combined PnL-$842.72

Wake Forest — 45%SMU — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Wake Forestavg 48.9¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$315.82	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
PR primm	Wake Forestavg 48.6¢	$1.2K	$2.1K	+$919.81	59% 931-653 (1584)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Wake Forestavg 51¢	$303.17	$209.39	+$47.91	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
└ Wake Forest leg	Wake Forestavg 51¢	$104.04	$154.02	+$48.08
└ SMU leg	SMUavg 24.6¢	$55.54	$55.37	-$0.17
ME metski29CTR	SMUavg 49¢	$975.21	$208.97	-$766.24	11% 7-56 (63)
65 6512395314597884CTR	SMUavg 33.9¢	$223.67	$161.54	-$62.13	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Wake Forestavg 48.6¢	$40.22	$72.02	+$31.8	47% 99-111 (210)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Wake Forestavg 54¢	$14.4	$23.19	+$8.8	47% 540-597 (1137)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	SMUavg 46¢	$12.26	$17.86	+$5.6	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
PA Pan9XCTR	SMUavg 25.1¢	$114.86	$17.01	-$22.78	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	SMUavg 53¢	$9.8	$12.39	+$2.59	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	SMUavg 24¢	$12	$12.25	+$0.25	52% 833-779 (1612)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Wake Forestavg 54¢	$9.01	$8.33	-$0.67	55% 1630-1336 (2966)

RN1

Wake Forest

Invested

$2,476.74

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$315.82

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

primm

Wake Forest

Invested

$1,163.41

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$919.81

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$303.17

Value

$209.39

PnL

+$47.91

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Both legs:

Wake Forest$104.0451¢+$48.08

SMU$55.5424.6¢-$0.17

metski29CTR

SMU

Invested

$975.21

Value

$208.97

PnL

-$766.24

Record

11%

7-56 (63)

6512395314597884CTR

SMU

Invested

$223.67

Value

$161.54

PnL

-$62.13

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$40.22

Value

$72.02

PnL

+$31.8

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

justaluckydude<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$14.4

Value

$23.19

PnL

+$8.8

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$12.26

Value

$17.86

PnL

+$5.6

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Pan9XCTR

SMU

Invested

$114.86

Value

$17.01

PnL

-$22.78

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$9.8

Value

$12.39

PnL

+$2.59

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

NotJumpCTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$12

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$9.01

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$0.67

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Research grade

NeutralWake Forest at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Wake Forest

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wake Forest wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.