Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Villanova, while the market favors Holy Cross (92%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Villanova vs. Holy Cross

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Villanova (40%) · Villanova at 8.0¢ · $871 held · ended Nov 14

Villanova8¢Holy Cross92¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Villanova

Consensus Traders

Villanova 40%

Total Value

$870.92

Combined PnL

$5.69

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 8¢

-89% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidVillanova at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Villanova

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Holy Cross 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Villanova8%

Holy Cross92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Villanova4 traders

Total Value$538.12

Total Shares764

Combined PnL-$0.6

Holy Cross6 traders

Total Value$332.63

Total Shares1,142

Combined PnL+$6.29

Villanova — 40%Holy Cross — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Villanova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHoly Cross 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Holy Cross 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Villanovaavg 72¢	$422.17	$422.17	-$0	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
LI Limousin	Holy Crossavg 28¢	$264.26	$264.26	+$0	36% 950-1657 (2607)
PA Pan9XCTR	Villanovaavg 72¢	$108	$108	+$0	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Holy Crossavg 27¢	$21.33	$22.11	+$0.78	45% 261-317 (578)
GA Gaditima<$100	Holy Crossavg 26.7¢	$58.28	$21.85	+$3.57	48% 278-299 (577)
SM smithagent<$100	Holy Crossavg 84¢	$16.8	$18.6	+$1.8	44% 661-825 (1486)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Villanovaavg 72¢	$5.34	$5.34	+$0	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
PU purplegatto<$100	Holy Crossavg 27¢	$3.67	$3.8	+$0.13	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Villanovaavg 16¢	$3.2	$2.6	-$0.6	58% 3610-2614 (6224)
MA MadridTime<$100	Holy Crossavg 28¢	$2	$2	-$0	37% 985-1642 (2627)

38791873984189CTR

Villanova

Invested

$422.17

Value

$422.17

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Limousin

Holy Cross

Invested

$264.26

Value

$264.26

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

Pan9XCTR

Villanova

Invested

$108

Value

$108

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Forecastication2<$100

Holy Cross

Invested

$21.33

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$0.78

Record

45%

261-317 (578)

Gaditima<$100

Holy Cross

Invested

$58.28

Value

$21.85

PnL

+$3.57

Record

48%

278-299 (577)

smithagent<$100

Holy Cross

Invested

$16.8

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$1.8

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Villanova

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

purplegatto<$100

Holy Cross

Invested

$3.67

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.13

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Villanova

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.6

Record

58%

3610-2614 (6224)

MadridTime<$100

Holy Cross

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

Research grade

AvoidVillanova at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Villanova

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Holy Cross 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Villanova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHoly Cross 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Holy Cross 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Villanova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.