Utah State vs. San Diego State: O/U 39.5

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 52¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 15

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

-$68.59

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 52¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares23,450

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Under10 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares23,256

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$9.1K	$10.3K	+$1.1K	59% 1075-754 (1829)
RN1	Underavg 52.8¢	$5.3K	$4.6K	-$632.43	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
TA takeormake	Underavg 53.5¢	$3.3K	$2.9K	-$435.81	57% 3612-2700 (6312)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 50.8¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$80.75	62% 1165-716 (1881)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51.1¢	$1.1K	$995.72	-$99.24	50% 2728-2703 (5431)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 49.3¢	$892.88	$842.53	-$50.35	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 59¢	$717.99	$651.06	-$66.93	56% 3811-2982 (6793)
GA gagarin59	Underavg 45¢	$511.06	$528.1	+$17.04	43% 80-108 (188)
dips.	Underavg 45¢	$484.56	$500.71	+$16.15	48% 1176-1281 (2457)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 47.7¢	$285.99	$278.99	-$7	38% 1390-2228 (3618)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 53¢	$114.95	$100.9	-$14.05	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$56	$53.5	-$2.5	51% 1007-981 (1988)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 44¢	$28.6	$30.22	+$1.62	58% 3808-2767 (6575)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$14.75	$13.38	-$1.38	48% 2369-2583 (4952)
IM imjustkenisghey<$100	Underavg 40¢	$3.76	$4.37	+$0.61	46% 55-65 (120)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.82	$3.21	+$0.39	49% 596-627 (1223)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$9,127.09

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

RN1

Under

Invested

$5,267.83

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$632.43

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

takeormake

Under

Invested

$3,332.76

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$435.81

Record

57%

3612-2700 (6312)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$1,492.48

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$80.75

Record

62%

1165-716 (1881)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,094.97

Value

$995.72

PnL

-$99.24

Record

50%

2728-2703 (5431)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$892.88

Value

$842.53

PnL

-$50.35

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$717.99

Value

$651.06

PnL

-$66.93

Record

56%

3811-2982 (6793)

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$511.06

Value

$528.1

PnL

+$17.04

Record

43%

80-108 (188)

dips.

Under

Invested

$484.56

Value

$500.71

PnL

+$16.15

Record

48%

1176-1281 (2457)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$285.99

Value

$278.99

PnL

-$7

Record

38%

1390-2228 (3618)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$114.95

Value

$100.9

PnL

-$14.05

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56

Value

$53.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$28.6

Value

$30.22

PnL

+$1.62

Record

58%

3808-2767 (6575)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.75

Value

$13.38

PnL

-$1.38

Record

48%

2369-2583 (4952)

imjustkenisghey<$100

Under

Invested

$3.76

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$0.61

Record

46%

55-65 (120)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$0.39

Record

49%

596-627 (1223)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.