Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Utah State, while the market favors San Diego State (65%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Utah State (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Utah State (67%) · Utah State at 36¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Utah State36¢San Diego State64¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah State

Consensus Traders

Utah State 67%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$61.92

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 35.5¢

-32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah State at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego State 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Utah State36%

San Diego State65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah State6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,841

Combined PnL-$54.89

San Diego State3 traders

Total Value$516.58

Total Shares1,086

Combined PnL-$7.03

Utah State — 67%San Diego State — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Utah State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUtah State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSan Diego State 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Utah State 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Utah Stateavg 52¢	$766.53	$796.01	+$29.48	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	San Diego Stateavg 46.4¢	$449.44	$445.74	-$3.7	48% 683-728 (1411)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Utah Stateavg 52¢	$314.01	$326.08	+$12.08	47% 1103-1245 (2348)
nigiri99CTR	Utah Stateavg 54¢	$331.56	$217.97	-$113.59	50% 663-658 (1321)
DE degenm<$100	San Diego Stateavg 67.8¢	$63.08	$60.02	-$3.06	48% 13-14 (27)
RN1CTR<$100	Utah Stateavg 32¢	$23.38	$39.45	+$16.07	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Utah Stateavg 53¢	$23.85	$24.3	+$0.45	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Utah Stateavg 52¢	$16	$16.62	+$0.62	56% 3811-2982 (6793)
GH ghorrock<$100	San Diego Stateavg 47.1¢	$11.09	$10.82	-$0.27	53% 2122-1900 (4022)

38791873984189CTR

Utah State

Invested

$766.53

Value

$796.01

PnL

+$29.48

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

Multicoloured-Serf

San Diego State

Invested

$449.44

Value

$445.74

PnL

-$3.7

Record

48%

683-728 (1411)

SnakeBallCTR

Utah State

Invested

$314.01

Value

$326.08

PnL

+$12.08

Record

47%

1103-1245 (2348)

nigiri99CTR

Utah State

Invested

$331.56

Value

$217.97

PnL

-$113.59

Record

50%

663-658 (1321)

degenm<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$63.08

Value

$60.02

PnL

-$3.06

Record

48%

13-14 (27)

RN1CTR<$100

Utah State

Invested

$23.38

Value

$39.45

PnL

+$16.07

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Utah State

Invested

$23.85

Value

$24.3

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Utah State

Invested

$16

Value

$16.62

PnL

+$0.62

Record

56%

3811-2982 (6793)

ghorrock<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$11.09

Value

$10.82

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

Research grade

NeutralUtah State at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Utah State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego State 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Utah State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUtah State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSan Diego State 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Utah State 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.