Utah vs. Arizona: O/U 69.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 67¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$260.68

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 66.5¢

+27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,491

Combined PnL+$599.87

Under6 traders

Total Value$767.97

Total Shares2,231

Combined PnL-$339.19

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 52.6¢	$2.2K	$2.8K	+$600.78	59% 1138-780 (1918)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$39.88	54% 5924-4982 (10906)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$1.1K	$944.97	-$105.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.9¢	$243.4	$309.09	+$65.69
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 49¢	$510	$338.27	-$171.73	43% 90-117 (207)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$398.44	$282.11	-$116.33	48% 3837-4187 (8024)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Overavg 56¢	$140	$145	+$5	41% 687-1000 (1687)
dips.CTR	Underavg 49¢	$120.05	$79.63	-$40.43	48% 1255-1336 (2591)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 44.6¢	$109.83	$40.9	-$10.17	50% 2084-2112 (4196)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 81¢	$25.11	$24.65	-$0.46	55% 1944-1609 (3553)
CM cm2897<$100	Overavg 31.1¢	$17.39	$11.48	-$5.91	49% 1223-1271 (2494)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.43	-$0.08	50% 1055-1041 (2096)

primm

Over

Invested

$2,203.02

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$600.78

Record

59%

1138-780 (1918)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,293.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$39.88

Record

54%

5924-4982 (10906)

Both legs:

Under$1,050.5545¢-$105.57

Over$243.446.9¢+$65.69

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$510

Value

$338.27

PnL

-$171.73

Record

43%

90-117 (207)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$398.44

Value

$282.11

PnL

-$116.33

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Over

Invested

$140

Value

$145

PnL

+$5

Record

41%

687-1000 (1687)

dips.CTR

Under

Invested

$120.05

Value

$79.63

PnL

-$40.43

Record

48%

1255-1336 (2591)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$109.83

Value

$40.9

PnL

-$10.17

Record

50%

2084-2112 (4196)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.11

Value

$24.65

PnL

-$0.46

Record

55%

1944-1609 (3553)

cm2897<$100

Over

Invested

$17.39

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$5.91

Record

49%

1223-1271 (2494)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.