Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Utah vs. Arizona: O/U 57.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 39¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$567.02

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 38.5¢

-29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,400

Combined PnL-$677.74

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,364

Combined PnL+$110.72

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 56.8¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$807.74	59% 1075-754 (1829)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 42.5¢	$940.39	$1.0K	+$77.4	50% 2728-2703 (5431)
RN1	Underavg 43¢	$337.55	$361.1	+$23.55	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 45¢	$225	$290	+$65	38% 1229-2023 (3252)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 45¢	$225	$290	+$65	38% 1216-2009 (3225)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 42.8¢	$99.19	$106.62	+$7.43	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 41¢	$17.34	$19.45	+$2.11	55% 1818-1517 (3335)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 43¢	$15.91	$17.02	+$1.11	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 52¢	$14.72	$13.02	-$1.7	56% 3811-2982 (6793)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 43¢	$11.59	$12.4	+$0.81	51% 1007-981 (1988)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$1,929.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$807.74

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$940.39

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$77.4

Record

50%

2728-2703 (5431)

RN1

Under

Invested

$337.55

Value

$361.1

PnL

+$23.55

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$225

Value

$290

PnL

+$65

Record

38%

1229-2023 (3252)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$225

Value

$290

PnL

+$65

Record

38%

1216-2009 (3225)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$99.19

Value

$106.62

PnL

+$7.43

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$17.34

Value

$19.45

PnL

+$2.11

Record

55%

1818-1517 (3335)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$15.91

Value

$17.02

PnL

+$1.11

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$14.72

Value

$13.02

PnL

-$1.7

Record

56%

3811-2982 (6793)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$11.59

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$0.81

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.