Spread: Arizona (-4.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (57%) · Utah at 85¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Arizona16¢Utah84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$162.29

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 84.5¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arizona16%

Utah85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,150

Combined PnL+$424.53

Arizona3 traders

Total Value$167.31

Total Shares1,222

Combined PnL-$262.24

Utah — 57%Arizona — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+40 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Utah 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Utahavg 59.6¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$449.36	59% 1099-762 (1861)
RN1ARB<$100	Arizonaavg 40.5¢	$1.1K	$990.8	-$145.35	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 65¢	$503.3	$561.15	+$57.85
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 40.5¢	$632.85	$429.65	-$203.2
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Utahavg 64.6¢	$232.11	$221.26	-$10.85	50% 4001-3995 (7996)
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 64.6¢	$135.6	$134.4	-$1.2
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 40¢	$96.51	$86.86	-$9.65
38 38791873984189	Utahavg 65¢	$430.35	$168.2	-$22.15	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
CM cm2897CTR	Arizonaavg 35¢	$414.75	$154.05	-$260.7	49% 1217-1263 (2480)
NO NotJump<$100	Utahavg 65¢	$45.5	$44.8	-$0.7	51% 1040-1018 (2058)
PA Pan9X<$100	Utahavg 65¢	$45.1	$15.12	-$1.98	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Arizonaavg 40.3¢	$13.41	$11.97	-$1.44	50% 2776-2756 (5532)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Arizonaavg 39¢	$1.4	$1.29	-$0.11	55% 1909-1576 (3485)

primm

Utah

Invested

$1,073.33

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$449.36

Record

59%

1099-762 (1861)

RN1ARB<$100

Arizona

Invested

$1,136.15

Value

$990.8

PnL

-$145.35

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

Both legs:

Utah$503.365¢+$57.85

Arizona$632.8540.5¢-$203.2

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Utah

Invested

$232.11

Value

$221.26

PnL

-$10.85

Record

50%

4001-3995 (7996)

Both legs:

Utah$135.664.6¢-$1.2

Arizona$96.5140¢-$9.65

38791873984189

Utah

Invested

$430.35

Value

$168.2

PnL

-$22.15

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

cm2897CTR

Arizona

Invested

$414.75

Value

$154.05

PnL

-$260.7

Record

49%

1217-1263 (2480)

NotJump<$100

Utah

Invested

$45.5

Value

$44.8

PnL

-$0.7

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

Pan9X<$100

Utah

Invested

$45.1

Value

$15.12

PnL

-$1.98

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Arizona

Invested

$13.41

Value

$11.97

PnL

-$1.44

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Arizona

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$0.11

Record

55%

1909-1576 (3485)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+40 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Utah 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.