Spread: Arizona (-3.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (60%) · Utah at 69¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Arizona32¢Utah68¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$567.38

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 68.5¢

+21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arizona32%

Utah69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,338

Combined PnL+$520.47

Arizona4 traders

Total Value$359.62

Total Shares827

Combined PnL+$46.91

Utah — 60%Arizona — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Arizonaavg 44.3¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$85.15	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 44.3¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$198.21
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 50.2¢	$611.65	$724.71	+$113.06
PR primm	Utahavg 58.4¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$569.36	59% 1075-754 (1829)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Arizonaavg 55¢	$1.6K	$975.96	-$179.66	49% 1214-1258 (2472)
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 46¢	$384.46	$622.38	+$237.92
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 55¢	$762.63	$353.58	-$417.57
FO Forecastication2	Utahavg 64¢	$467.2	$416.1	-$51.1	45% 298-371 (669)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Utahavg 45¢	$390.13	$396.42	+$6.29	50% 2728-2703 (5431)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Arizonaavg 36¢	$273.6	$319.2	+$45.6	38% 1242-1999 (3241)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Arizonaavg 39.9¢	$379.21	$227.66	+$48.01	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 39.9¢	$133.5	$132.07	+$12.87
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 44.9¢	$70.95	$95.59	+$35.14
65 6512395314597884<$100	Utahavg 45¢	$90.04	$85.03	-$5	50% 3988-3981 (7969)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Arizonaavg 44¢	$24.33	$25.01	+$0.68	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
TA takeormake<$100	Utahavg 57¢	$11.4	$12.3	+$0.9	57% 3612-2700 (6312)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Arizonaavg 40¢	$10.95	$11.18	+$0.23	51% 1007-981 (1988)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Arizonaavg 38¢	$3.83	$4.23	+$0.4	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Utahavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.97	+$0.02	55% 1818-1517 (3335)

RN1ARB<$100

Arizona

Invested

$2,901.92

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$85.15

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

Both legs:

Arizona$2,290.2744.3¢-$198.21

Utah$611.6550.2¢+$113.06

primm

Utah

Invested

$2,062.8

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$569.36

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

cm2897ARB<$100

Arizona

Invested

$1,606.56

Value

$975.96

PnL

-$179.66

Record

49%

1214-1258 (2472)

Both legs:

Utah$384.4646¢+$237.92

Arizona$762.6355¢-$417.57

Forecastication2

Utah

Invested

$467.2

Value

$416.1

PnL

-$51.1

Record

45%

298-371 (669)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Utah

Invested

$390.13

Value

$396.42

PnL

+$6.29

Record

50%

2728-2703 (5431)

MadridTimeCTR

Arizona

Invested

$273.6

Value

$319.2

PnL

+$45.6

Record

38%

1242-1999 (3241)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Arizona

Invested

$379.21

Value

$227.66

PnL

+$48.01

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

Both legs:

Arizona$133.539.9¢+$12.87

Utah$70.9544.9¢+$35.14

6512395314597884<$100

Utah

Invested

$90.04

Value

$85.03

PnL

-$5

Record

50%

3988-3981 (7969)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Arizona

Invested

$24.33

Value

$25.01

PnL

+$0.68

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

takeormake<$100

Utah

Invested

$11.4

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.9

Record

57%

3612-2700 (6312)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Arizona

Invested

$10.95

Value

$11.18

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Arizona

Invested

$3.83

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Utah

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

1818-1517 (3335)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.