Spread: Arizona (-2.5)

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (20%) · Utah at 56¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Arizona44¢Utah56¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 20%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$10.71

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 56.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arizona44%

Utah56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah2 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,670

Combined PnL-$146.15

Arizona8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,142

Combined PnL+$156.86

Utah — 20%Arizona — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedArizona 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Arizona 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Utahavg 54.7¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$145.01	59% 1075-754 (1829)
RN1CTR	Arizonaavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$23.47	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
38 38791873984189CTR	Arizonaavg 40.3¢	$856.11	$980.13	+$131.22	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Arizonaavg 50¢	$333.32	$326.56	-$6.76	50% 2728-2703 (5431)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Arizonaavg 39¢	$203.21	$255.31	+$52.1	55% 1818-1517 (3335)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Arizonaavg 50¢	$202.77	$198.71	-$4.06	50% 3988-3981 (7969)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Arizonaavg 44¢	$32.8	$36.53	+$3.73	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Arizonaavg 39¢	$17.55	$22.05	+$4.5	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Utahavg 56¢	$10.62	$9.48	-$1.14	56% 176-140 (316)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Arizonaavg 53¢	$5.36	$4.95	-$0.4	51% 1007-981 (1988)

primm

Utah

Invested

$3,637.02

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$145.01

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

RN1CTR

Arizona

Invested

$1,158.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$23.47

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

38791873984189CTR

Arizona

Invested

$856.11

Value

$980.13

PnL

+$131.22

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Arizona

Invested

$333.32

Value

$326.56

PnL

-$6.76

Record

50%

2728-2703 (5431)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Arizona

Invested

$203.21

Value

$255.31

PnL

+$52.1

Record

55%

1818-1517 (3335)

6512395314597884CTR

Arizona

Invested

$202.77

Value

$198.71

PnL

-$4.06

Record

50%

3988-3981 (7969)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Arizona

Invested

$32.8

Value

$36.53

PnL

+$3.73

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Arizona

Invested

$17.55

Value

$22.05

PnL

+$4.5

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Utah

Invested

$10.62

Value

$9.48

PnL

-$1.14

Record

56%

176-140 (316)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Arizona

Invested

$5.36

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Utah

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedArizona 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Arizona 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.