Spread: Utah (-4.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona (25%) · Arizona at 64¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Utah37¢Arizona63¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arizona

Consensus Traders

Arizona 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$264.12

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 63.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralArizona at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Utah37%

Arizona64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arizona2 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,499

Combined PnL-$491.38

Utah6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares8,073

Combined PnL+$227.26

Arizona — 25%Utah — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Arizona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Utah) and the top 1000 (5 on Arizona) disagree here.

ctrArizona 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUtah 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Arizona 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Arizonaavg 61.6¢	$3.8K	$3.3K	-$495.19	59% 1138-780 (1918)
RN1CTR	Utahavg 35.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$5.45	54% 5924-4982 (10906)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Utahavg 42.2¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$151.42	50% 2792-2794 (5586)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Utahavg 46.4¢	$464.54	$444.8	+$47.16	48% 3837-4187 (8024)
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 46.4¢	$255.91	$292.52	+$36.61
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 45.7¢	$147.92	$152.28	+$10.55
TA takeormakeCTR	Utahavg 54.7¢	$383.73	$340.47	-$43.26	57% 3675-2741 (6416)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Utahavg 35¢	$216.86	$323.78	+$106.92	50% 4021-4019 (8040)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Arizonaavg 66¢	$251.69	$255.5	+$3.81	55% 1944-1609 (3553)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Utahavg 36¢	$92.5	$93.78	+$1.28	41% 687-1000 (1687)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Utahavg 46.5¢	$105.16	$80.57	+$23.69	50% 2084-2112 (4196)
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 46.5¢	$44.48	$46.91	+$20.03
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 45.5¢	$30	$33.66	+$3.66
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Utahavg 32.9¢	$31.33	$47.69	+$16.35	50% 1055-1041 (2096)

primm

Arizona

Invested

$3,768.28

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$495.19

Record

59%

1138-780 (1918)

RN1CTR

Utah

Invested

$1,463.19

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$5.45

Record

54%

5924-4982 (10906)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Utah

Invested

$1,201.69

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$151.42

Record

50%

2792-2794 (5586)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Utah

Invested

$464.54

Value

$444.8

PnL

+$47.16

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

Both legs:

Utah$255.9146.4¢+$36.61

Arizona$147.9245.7¢+$10.55

takeormakeCTR

Utah

Invested

$383.73

Value

$340.47

PnL

-$43.26

Record

57%

3675-2741 (6416)

6512395314597884CTR

Utah

Invested

$216.86

Value

$323.78

PnL

+$106.92

Record

50%

4021-4019 (8040)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Arizona

Invested

$251.69

Value

$255.5

PnL

+$3.81

Record

55%

1944-1609 (3553)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$92.5

Value

$93.78

PnL

+$1.28

Record

41%

687-1000 (1687)

Pan9XARB<$100

Utah

Invested

$105.16

Value

$80.57

PnL

+$23.69

Record

50%

2084-2112 (4196)

Both legs:

Utah$44.4846.5¢+$20.03

Arizona$3045.5¢+$3.66

NotJumpCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$31.33

Value

$47.69

PnL

+$16.35

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

Research grade

NeutralArizona at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Arizona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Utah) and the top 1000 (5 on Arizona) disagree here.

ctrArizona 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUtah 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Arizona 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arizona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.