Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

USC vs. Indiana: O/U 45.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 10¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 14

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 10¢

-80% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares10,310

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Over7 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares11,550

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Underavg 47.7¢	$4.9K	$8.3K	+$3.4K	61% 1042-657 (1699)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 51.7¢	$4.7K	$6.6K	+$2.0K	60% 1016-678 (1694)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 42¢	$460.02	$805.03	+$345.01	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
RN1CTR	Overavg 57¢	$592.91	$666.14	+$73.23	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 57¢	$237.12	$305.76	+$68.64	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$62.08	$97.08	+$35	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 42.6¢	$62.96	$67.79	+$26.26	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 49¢	$24.01	$23.77	-$0.25	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$9.2	$14.7	+$5.5	51% 917-874 (1791)

PacersThreeandahalf

Under

Invested

$4,892.68

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

61%

1042-657 (1699)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$4,651.16

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$460.02

Value

$805.03

PnL

+$345.01

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$592.91

Value

$666.14

PnL

+$73.23

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$237.12

Value

$305.76

PnL

+$68.64

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.08

Value

$97.08

PnL

+$35

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.96

Value

$67.79

PnL

+$26.26

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$24.01

Value

$23.77

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.2

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$5.5

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.