USC vs. Indiana: O/U 39.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 59¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$559.82

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 58.5¢

-17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares9,843

Combined PnL-$242.08

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares10,174

Combined PnL+$801.89

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 70.4¢	$6.0K	$5.8K	-$161.49	59% 932-653 (1585)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Underavg 32¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$377.4	61% 1041-657 (1698)
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 23¢	$521.52	$929.67	+$408.15	42% 64-89 (153)
VI vibing123	Overavg 69¢	$815.21	$732.55	-$82.66	62% 1141-702 (1843)
RN1CTR	Underavg 31¢	$239.94	$243.81	+$3.87	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 30.8¢	$214.4	$219.2	+$4.8	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 68¢	$65.35	$67.17	+$1.82	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 68¢	$34	$34.25	+$0.25	52% 883-823 (1706)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 30.1¢	$26.59	$28.29	+$1.7	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$3.77	$7.53	+$3.77	48% 281-306 (587)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100	Underavg 21.9¢	$5.13	$6.55	+$1.42	52% 2647-2473 (5120)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$1.44	$2.24	+$0.8	37% 1116-1869 (2985)

primm

Over

Invested

$5,995.96

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$161.49

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Under

Invested

$2,012.8

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$377.4

Record

61%

1041-657 (1698)

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$521.52

Value

$929.67

PnL

+$408.15

Record

42%

64-89 (153)

vibing123

Over

Invested

$815.21

Value

$732.55

PnL

-$82.66

Record

62%

1141-702 (1843)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$239.94

Value

$243.81

PnL

+$3.87

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$214.4

Value

$219.2

PnL

+$4.8

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$65.35

Value

$67.17

PnL

+$1.82

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$34

Value

$34.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.59

Value

$28.29

PnL

+$1.7

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.77

Value

$7.53

PnL

+$3.77

Record

48%

281-306 (587)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.13

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$1.42

Record

52%

2647-2473 (5120)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.44

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0.8

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.