Spread: Indiana (-9.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold USC (33%) · USC at 51¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14

Indiana50¢USC50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

USC

Consensus Traders

USC 33%

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$5.26

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUSC at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

USC

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Indiana50%

USC51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

USC3 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,712

Combined PnL+$59.13

Indiana6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares10,671

Combined PnL-$53.87

USC — 33%Indiana — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on USC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on USC) and the top 1000 (8 on Indiana) disagree here.

ctrUSC 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUSC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Indiana 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	USCavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$50	59% 931-653 (1584)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Indianaavg 50¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$32.52	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
CR Crazyboy77CTR	Indianaavg 50¢	$1.0K	$990	-$10	13% 15-103 (118)
38 38791873984189CTR	Indianaavg 50¢	$952.71	$943.71	-$9	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
VeryLucky888	USCavg 49¢	$273.17	$182.51	+$7.38	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
AM AmericaFirst1	USCavg 50¢	$175.12	$176.87	+$1.75	47% 99-111 (210)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Indianaavg 51¢	$86	$83.47	-$2.53	35% 264-485 (749)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Indianaavg 50¢	$63.55	$46.14	+$0.09	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Indianaavg 50¢	$9.46	$9.54	+$0.08	52% 1721-1568 (3289)

primm

USC

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$50

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Indiana

Invested

$3,251.51

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$32.52

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Crazyboy77CTR

Indiana

Invested

$1,000

Value

$990

PnL

-$10

Record

13%

15-103 (118)

38791873984189CTR

Indiana

Invested

$952.71

Value

$943.71

PnL

-$9

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

VeryLucky888

USC

Invested

$273.17

Value

$182.51

PnL

+$7.38

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

AmericaFirst1

USC

Invested

$175.12

Value

$176.87

PnL

+$1.75

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$86

Value

$83.47

PnL

-$2.53

Record

35%

264-485 (749)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$63.55

Value

$46.14

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$9.46

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

Research grade

NeutralUSC at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

USC

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on USC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on USC) and the top 1000 (8 on Indiana) disagree here.

ctrUSC 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUSC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Indiana 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that USC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.