Spread: USC (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Indiana (56%) · Indiana at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

USC4¢Indiana96¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Indiana

Consensus Traders

Indiana 56%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$141.64

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 96.5¢

+30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralIndiana at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

USC4%

Indiana97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Indiana5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,559

Combined PnL+$5.56

USC4 traders

Total Value$589.06

Total Shares1,747

Combined PnL+$136.08

Indiana — 56%USC — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Indiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIndiana 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIndiana 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Indiana 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4	Indianaavg 74¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$6.78	34% 175-339 (514)
CI cigarettesCTR	USCavg 26¢	$234	$306	+$72	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
PU purplegattoCTR	USCavg 25.4¢	$128.48	$172.04	+$43.56	68% 2651-1237 (3888)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	USCavg 24.8¢	$68.67	$94.01	+$25.33	45% 277-332 (609)
nigiri99<$100	Indianaavg 75¢	$75	$74.5	-$0.5	52% 602-565 (1167)
PA Pan9X<$100	Indianaavg 75¢	$58.5	$58.11	-$0.39	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	USCavg 34¢	$21.83	$17.02	-$4.82	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
GH ghorrock<$100	Indianaavg 75.5¢	$15.22	$15.02	-$0.2	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
38 38791873984189<$100	Indianaavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.73	-$0.13	47% 3383-3741 (7124)

forecastication4

Indiana

Invested

$1,002.95

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.78

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

cigarettesCTR

USC

Invested

$234

Value

$306

PnL

+$72

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

purplegattoCTR

USC

Invested

$128.48

Value

$172.04

PnL

+$43.56

Record

68%

2651-1237 (3888)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

USC

Invested

$68.67

Value

$94.01

PnL

+$25.33

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

nigiri99<$100

Indiana

Invested

$75

Value

$74.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

Pan9X<$100

Indiana

Invested

$58.5

Value

$58.11

PnL

-$0.39

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

USC

Invested

$21.83

Value

$17.02

PnL

-$4.82

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

ghorrock<$100

Indiana

Invested

$15.22

Value

$15.02

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

38791873984189<$100

Indiana

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Research grade

NeutralIndiana at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Indiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIndiana 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIndiana 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Indiana 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Indiana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.