Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

UNLV vs. New Mexico: O/U 39.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 41¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$304.08

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 40.5¢

-30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,702

Combined PnL-$323.57

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,769

Combined PnL+$19.49

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 58.2¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	-$211.51	59% 1044-726 (1770)
RN1	Underavg 42.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$44.19	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 41¢	$453.1	$442.05	-$11.05	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 56¢	$975.89	$416.64	-$119.24	50% 3954-3949 (7903)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 41.6¢	$407.4	$382.69	-$18.76	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 41.9¢	$93.16	$94.49	+$1.34	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 41¢	$51.22	$55	+$3.78	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$28	$32.25	+$4.25	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$19.6	$22.58	+$2.97	60% 1448-950 (2398)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.7	-$0.05	58% 3760-2730 (6490)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$3,815.07

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$211.51

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,005.62

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$44.19

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$453.1

Value

$442.05

PnL

-$11.05

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$975.89

Value

$416.64

PnL

-$119.24

Record

50%

3954-3949 (7903)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$407.4

Value

$382.69

PnL

-$18.76

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$93.16

Value

$94.49

PnL

+$1.34

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$51.22

Value

$55

PnL

+$3.78

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28

Value

$32.25

PnL

+$4.25

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.6

Value

$22.58

PnL

+$2.97

Record

60%

1448-950 (2398)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.