Spread: New Mexico (-27.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold UNLV (60%) · UNLV at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

New Mexico6¢UNLV94¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UNLV

Consensus Traders

UNLV 60%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$17.69

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 94¢

+28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUNLV at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UNLV

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico6%

UNLV94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UNLV6 traders

Total Value$857.29

Total Shares1,259

Combined PnL-$68.37

New Mexico4 traders

Total Value$403.83

Total Shares1,293

Combined PnL+$50.68

UNLV — 60%New Mexico — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on UNLV. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Mexico 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000UNLV 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	UNLVavg 74¢	$740	$640	-$100	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
LI LightParadoxCTR	New Mexicoavg 26¢	$262.47	$307.9	+$45.43	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
PR primmCTR<$100	New Mexicoavg 30¢	$86.85	$91.32	+$4.47	59% 1044-726 (1770)
dips.<$100	UNLVavg 70¢	$70	$86	+$16	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	UNLVavg 70¢	$70	$86	+$16	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
PA Pan9X<$100	UNLVavg 85¢	$18.7	$18.92	+$0.22	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
GH ghorrock<$100	UNLVavg 74.4¢	$18.32	$15.76	-$2.56	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
US User7429<$100	UNLVavg 70¢	$8.64	$10.61	+$1.97	42% 374-523 (897)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	New Mexicoavg 25¢	$2.52	$3.07	+$0.55	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	New Mexicoavg 26¢	$1.31	$1.54	+$0.23	37% 1153-1939 (3092)

38791873984189

UNLV

Invested

$740

Value

$640

PnL

-$100

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

LightParadoxCTR

New Mexico

Invested

$262.47

Value

$307.9

PnL

+$45.43

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

primmCTR<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$86.85

Value

$91.32

PnL

+$4.47

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

dips.<$100

UNLV

Invested

$70

Value

$86

PnL

+$16

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

UNLV

Invested

$70

Value

$86

PnL

+$16

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

Pan9X<$100

UNLV

Invested

$18.7

Value

$18.92

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ghorrock<$100

UNLV

Invested

$18.32

Value

$15.76

PnL

-$2.56

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

User7429<$100

UNLV

Invested

$8.64

Value

$10.61

PnL

+$1.97

Record

42%

374-523 (897)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$2.52

Value

$3.07

PnL

+$0.55

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

LimousinCTR<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.23

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

Research grade

NeutralUNLV at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UNLV

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on UNLV. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Mexico 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000UNLV 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UNLV wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.