Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold New Mexico, while the market favors UNLV (69%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: New Mexico (-21.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (55%) · New Mexico at 32¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

New Mexico32¢UNLV68¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Mexico

Consensus Traders

New Mexico 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$271.5

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 31.5¢

-41% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors UNLV 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico32%

UNLV69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,672

Combined PnL+$93.9

UNLV5 traders

Total Value$983.21

Total Shares1,484

Combined PnL+$177.6

New Mexico — 55%UNLV — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Mexico 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew Mexico 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000New Mexico 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmARB<$100	UNLVavg 43.9¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$208.88	59% 1044-726 (1770)
└ UNLV leg	UNLVavg 43.9¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$198.46
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.42
RN1CTR	New Mexicoavg 56¢	$882.76	$961.26	+$78.5	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	New Mexicoavg 60¢	$1.1K	$938.88	-$135.14	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
38 38791873984189	UNLVavg 49.1¢	$924.7	$904.17	+$168.85	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
VE VenusianCTR	New Mexicoavg 38.1¢	$301.77	$364.12	+$62.35	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	New Mexicoavg 45¢	$248.02	$336.2	+$88.18	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
dips.ARB<$100	UNLVavg 48¢	$738	$184.84	-$63.03	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
└ UNLV leg	UNLVavg 48¢	$126.3	$124.99	-$4.88
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 60¢	$68.4	$59.85	-$58.15
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	New Mexicoavg 53.7¢	$163.2	$161.09	-$2.11	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 53.7¢	$119.88	$117.19	-$2.68
└ UNLV leg	UNLVavg 46.9¢	$43.32	$43.9	+$0.57
US User7429<$100	UNLVavg 48¢	$37.5	$52.34	+$14.84	42% 374-523 (897)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	New Mexicoavg 53.8¢	$51.64	$31.82	-$2.31	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	UNLVavg 48¢	$7.38	$10.3	+$2.92	51% 179-174 (353)
FO forecastication4<$100	UNLVavg 62¢	$12.91	$8.33	-$4.58	34% 182-346 (528)
GH ghorrock<$100	UNLVavg 62¢	$12.5	$8.06	-$4.43	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	New Mexicoavg 38¢	$3.83	$6.15	+$2.32	37% 1176-1966 (3142)

primmARB<$100

UNLV

Invested

$3,529.25

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$208.88

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

Both legs:

UNLV$2,445.9343.9¢+$198.46

New Mexico$1,083.3252¢+$10.42

RN1CTR

New Mexico

Invested

$882.76

Value

$961.26

PnL

+$78.5

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

New Mexico

Invested

$1,126.03

Value

$938.88

PnL

-$135.14

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

38791873984189

UNLV

Invested

$924.7

Value

$904.17

PnL

+$168.85

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

VenusianCTR

New Mexico

Invested

$301.77

Value

$364.12

PnL

+$62.35

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

New Mexico

Invested

$248.02

Value

$336.2

PnL

+$88.18

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

dips.ARB<$100

UNLV

Invested

$738

Value

$184.84

PnL

-$63.03

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

Both legs:

UNLV$126.348¢-$4.88

New Mexico$68.460¢-$58.15

topdogbigboiARB<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$163.2

Value

$161.09

PnL

-$2.11

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Both legs:

New Mexico$119.8853.7¢-$2.68

UNLV$43.3246.9¢+$0.57

User7429<$100

UNLV

Invested

$37.5

Value

$52.34

PnL

+$14.84

Record

42%

374-523 (897)

Pan9XCTR<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$51.64

Value

$31.82

PnL

-$2.31

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

UNLV

Invested

$7.38

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$2.92

Record

51%

179-174 (353)

forecastication4<$100

UNLV

Invested

$12.91

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$4.58

Record

34%

182-346 (528)

ghorrock<$100

UNLV

Invested

$12.5

Value

$8.06

PnL

-$4.43

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$3.83

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$2.32

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico at 32%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors UNLV 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Mexico 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew Mexico 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000New Mexico 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.