UMass vs. Toledo: O/U 55.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 83¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
$3.6K
$486.03
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 69.8¢ | $2.2K | $2.7K | +$472.82 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 31¢ | $489.62 | $489.62 | -$0 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 30.5¢ | $280.07 | $283.34 | +$4.82 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Overavg 30¢ | $111.6 | $115.32 | +$3.72 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $22.88 | $27.28 | +$4.4 | 45% 257-310 (567) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 30.6¢ | $20.56 | $20.83 | +$0.27 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
Invested
$2,237.1
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$472.82
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
RN1CTRInvested
$489.62
Value
$489.62
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$280.07
Value
$283.34
PnL
+$4.82
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$111.6
Value
$115.32
PnL
+$3.72
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$22.88
Value
$27.28
PnL
+$4.4
Record
45%
257-310 (567)
Invested
$20.56
Value
$20.83
PnL
+$0.27
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.