UMass vs. Toledo: O/U 47.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 59¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 12

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

-$689

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 58.5¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares13,674

Combined PnL-$774.68

Over7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares13,091

Combined PnL+$85.68

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Underavg 46.6¢	$5.6K	$5.0K	-$617.03	61% 870-566 (1436)
RN1	Overavg 53.3¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$167.99	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 52.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$83.21	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 52.9¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$25.11	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.9¢	$686.02	$758.39	+$72.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.7¢	$508.24	$461.07	-$47.18
38 38791873984189	Overavg 53¢	$766.35	$728.83	+$9.82	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
VI vibing123CTR	Underavg 51¢	$846.35	$688.69	-$157.65	63% 1099-655 (1754)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 52.2¢	$406.35	$392.92	-$13.43	55% 719-584 (1303)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 52¢	$113.68	$73.85	+$0.47	49% 692-733 (1425)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 53¢	$42.4	$43.2	+$0.8	45% 257-309 (566)
BI biying88888<$100	Overavg 53¢	$31.27	$34.52	+$3.25	37% 121-203 (324)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$5,602.92

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$617.03

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

RN1

Over

Invested

$3,288.36

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$167.99

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$2,437.21

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$83.21

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,348.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$25.11

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Both legs:

Over$686.0252.9¢+$72.28

Under$508.2445.7¢-$47.18

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$766.35

Value

$728.83

PnL

+$9.82

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

vibing123CTR

Under

Invested

$846.35

Value

$688.69

PnL

-$157.65

Record

63%

1099-655 (1754)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$406.35

Value

$392.92

PnL

-$13.43

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$113.68

Value

$73.85

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$42.4

Value

$43.2

PnL

+$0.8

Record

45%

257-309 (566)

biying88888<$100

Over

Invested

$31.27

Value

$34.52

PnL

+$3.25

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.