UMass vs. Toledo: O/U 41.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 63%
$2.0K
$316.95
73.2¢ → 62.5¢
-15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 72¢ | $849.21 | $931.24 | +$82.03 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
PR primmCTR | Underavg 30¢ | $252 | $340.2 | +$88.2 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 23¢ | $174.98 | $308.12 | +$133.14 | 30% 402-921 (1323) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 77¢ | $280.38 | $286.73 | +$6.34 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $41.64 | $47.68 | +$6.04 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $33.88 | $34.76 | +$0.88 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $3.95 | +$0 | 25% 117-356 (473) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $0.89 | $1.22 | +$0.32 | 19% 50-220 (270) |
RN1Invested
$849.21
Value
$931.24
PnL
+$82.03
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$252
Value
$340.2
PnL
+$88.2
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
Invested
$174.98
Value
$308.12
PnL
+$133.14
Record
30%
402-921 (1323)
Invested
$280.38
Value
$286.73
PnL
+$6.34
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$41.64
Value
$47.68
PnL
+$6.04
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$33.88
Value
$34.76
PnL
+$0.88
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.95
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
117-356 (473)
Invested
$0.89
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.32
Record
19%
50-220 (270)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.