Spread: Toledo (-9.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (75%) · Toledo at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Toledo94¢UMass6¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toledo

Consensus Traders

Toledo 75%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$9.39

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 93.5¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Toledo94%

UMass7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toledo6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,999

Combined PnL+$252.39

UMass2 traders

Total Value$276.78

Total Shares3,664

Combined PnL-$243.01

Toledo — 75%UMass — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Toledo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrToledo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Toledo 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Toledoavg 77.6¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$199.62	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189	Toledoavg 88.1¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$40.81	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
CI cigarettes	Toledoavg 88¢	$871.2	$920.7	+$49.5	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
alpheclabs2	Toledoavg 88¢	$452.32	$478.02	+$25.7	44% 124-159 (283)
65 6512395314597884CTR	UMassavg 13.6¢	$488.46	$268.95	-$219.51	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
PA Pan9X<$100	Toledoavg 74.8¢	$68.83	$85.56	+$16.73	49% 693-734 (1427)
CM cm2897<$100	Toledoavg 77¢	$7.7	$9.35	+$1.65	49% 1112-1143 (2255)
PR primmCTR<$100	UMassavg 40¢	$31.33	$7.83	-$23.5	61% 870-566 (1436)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Toledo

Invested

$1,026.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$199.62

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189

Toledo

Invested

$1,078.09

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$40.81

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

cigarettes

Toledo

Invested

$871.2

Value

$920.7

PnL

+$49.5

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

alpheclabs2

Toledo

Invested

$452.32

Value

$478.02

PnL

+$25.7

Record

44%

124-159 (283)

6512395314597884CTR

UMass

Invested

$488.46

Value

$268.95

PnL

-$219.51

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Pan9X<$100

Toledo

Invested

$68.83

Value

$85.56

PnL

+$16.73

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

cm2897<$100

Toledo

Invested

$7.7

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$1.65

Record

49%

1112-1143 (2255)

primmCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$31.33

Value

$7.83

PnL

-$23.5

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Toledo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrToledo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Toledo 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toledo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.