Spread: Toledo (-30.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold UMass (25%) · UMass at 56¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 12

Toledo44¢UMass56¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UMass

Consensus Traders

UMass 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$596.53

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 56.5¢

-14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUMass at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UMass

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Toledo44%

UMass56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toledo6 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares13,234

Combined PnL+$1.9K

UMass2 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares11,870

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Toledo — 75%UMass — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on UMass. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrToledo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Toledo 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Toledoavg 30.1¢	$3.2K	$4.9K	+$1.7K	61% 870-566 (1436)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	UMassavg 69.9¢	$4.7K	$3.6K	$-1.0K	61% 1010-635 (1645)
65 6512395314597884	UMassavg 61¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$235.68	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
RN1ARB<$100	UMassavg 69¢	$973.11	$982.72	+$9.6	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 69¢	$580.6	$496.46	-$84.15
└ Toledo leg	Toledoavg 33.1¢	$392.51	$486.26	+$93.75
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Toledoavg 34.8¢	$726.04	$831.45	+$105.41	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Toledoavg 40.5¢	$599.93	$572.69	-$27.24	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Toledo leg	Toledoavg 40.5¢	$376.79	$381.71	+$4.92
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 68.9¢	$223.14	$190.98	-$32.16
PA Pan9XCTR	Toledoavg 38.8¢	$247.22	$199.9	+$0.83	49% 693-734 (1427)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Toledoavg 35¢	$70	$82	+$12	62% 1329-801 (2130)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Toledoavg 38.5¢	$44.16	$47.05	+$2.89	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Toledoavg 15¢	$2.02	$5.51	+$3.49	55% 683-554 (1237)

primmCTR

Toledo

Invested

$3,202.61

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

PacersThreeandahalf

UMass

Invested

$4,658.31

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

61%

1010-635 (1645)

6512395314597884

UMass

Invested

$3,175.6

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$235.68

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

RN1ARB<$100

UMass

Invested

$973.11

Value

$982.72

PnL

+$9.6

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

UMass$580.669¢-$84.15

Toledo$392.5133.1¢+$93.75

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Toledo

Invested

$726.04

Value

$831.45

PnL

+$105.41

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Toledo

Invested

$599.93

Value

$572.69

PnL

-$27.24

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Toledo$376.7940.5¢+$4.92

UMass$223.1468.9¢-$32.16

Pan9XCTR

Toledo

Invested

$247.22

Value

$199.9

PnL

+$0.83

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

shiifooCTR<$100

Toledo

Invested

$70

Value

$82

PnL

+$12

Record

62%

1329-801 (2130)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Toledo

Invested

$44.16

Value

$47.05

PnL

+$2.89

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Toledo

Invested

$2.02

Value

$5.51

PnL

+$3.49

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

NeutralUMass at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

UMass

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on UMass. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrToledo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Toledo 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UMass wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.