Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold UMass, while the market favors Toledo (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Toledo (-27.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UMass (67%) · UMass at 48¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
UMass
6
UMass 67%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$14.03
63.6¢ → 47.5¢
-25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUMass at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Toledo 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on UMass. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Toledoavg 38.7¢ | $864.31 | $1.2K | +$352.68 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | UMassavg 61.5¢ | $765 | $720 | -$45 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
| └ UMass leg | UMassavg 61.5¢ | $615 | $440 | -$175 | |
| └ Toledo leg | Toledoavg 30¢ | $150 | $280 | +$130 | |
65 6512395314597884CTR | UMassavg 65.7¢ | $749.62 | $502.14 | -$247.47 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
 RN1CTR | UMassavg 61¢ | $487.58 | $351.66 | -$135.92 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
JU justaluckydude | Toledoavg 35¢ | $69.65 | $104.48 | +$34.83 | 38% 222-363 (585) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | UMassavg 60¢ | $68.72 | $50.4 | -$18.33 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | UMassavg 64.6¢ | $27.63 | $27.82 | +$0.19 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
Invested
$864.31
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$352.68
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
Invested
$765
Value
$720
PnL
-$45
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Both legs:
Invested
$749.62
Value
$502.14
PnL
-$247.47
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
RN1CTRInvested
$487.58
Value
$351.66
PnL
-$135.92
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$69.65
Value
$104.48
PnL
+$34.83
Record
38%
222-363 (585)
Invested
$68.72
Value
$50.4
PnL
-$18.33
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$27.63
Value
$27.82
PnL
+$0.19
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.