Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold UMass, while the market favors Toledo (63%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Toledo (-24.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UMass (83%) · UMass at 38¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
UMass
6
UMass 83%
$2.8K
$76.68
55.4¢ → 37.5¢
-32% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUMass at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Toledo 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on UMass. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Toledoavg 44.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.8K | +$616.03 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
38 38791873984189CTR | UMassavg 55.4¢ | $735.61 | $478.22 | -$257.39 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | UMassavg 55.8¢ | $396.57 | $255.65 | -$140.93 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | UMassavg 55¢ | $275 | $180 | -$95 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | UMassavg 55.3¢ | $75.72 | $49.32 | -$26.4 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | UMassavg 55.6¢ | $55.72 | $36.09 | -$19.63 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
Invested
$1,146.48
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$616.03
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
Invested
$735.61
Value
$478.22
PnL
-$257.39
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$396.57
Value
$255.65
PnL
-$140.93
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$275
Value
$180
PnL
-$95
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$75.72
Value
$49.32
PnL
-$26.4
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$55.72
Value
$36.09
PnL
-$19.63
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.