Spread: Toledo (-20.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (56%) · Toledo at 72¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 12

Toledo72¢UMass28¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toledo

Consensus Traders

Toledo 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$866.35

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 72¢

+33% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Toledo72%

UMass28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toledo5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares7,456

Combined PnL+$1.2K

UMass4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,527

Combined PnL-$326.93

Toledo — 56%UMass — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Toledoavg 54.7¢	$3.8K	$5.0K	+$1.2K	61% 870-566 (1436)
RN1CTR	UMassavg 45.8¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$92.25	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	UMassavg 52.1¢	$787.96	$567.19	-$122.43	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Toledo leg	Toledoavg 56.5¢	$296.75	$341.25	+$44.5
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 52.1¢	$336.07	$225.94	-$166.93
65 6512395314597884CTR	UMassavg 42.1¢	$873.38	$507.98	-$235.98	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	UMassavg 44.1¢	$498.21	$497.01	-$1.2	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	UMassavg 41¢	$205	$207.5	+$2.5	55% 719-584 (1303)
PA Pan9X	Toledoavg 65.2¢	$216.73	$117.37	-$11.01	49% 692-733 (1425)
LI LightParadox<$100	Toledoavg 36¢	$81.17	$78.92	-$2.25	31% 412-918 (1330)
MA MadridTime<$100	Toledoavg 36¢	$28.93	$28.13	-$0.8	31% 410-897 (1307)
CI cigarettes<$100	Toledoavg 62¢	$1.24	$1.3	+$0.06	53% 5815-5180 (10995)

primm

Toledo

Invested

$3,816.52

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

RN1CTR

UMass

Invested

$1,951.88

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$92.25

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

38791873984189ARB<$100

UMass

Invested

$787.96

Value

$567.19

PnL

-$122.43

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Toledo$296.7556.5¢+$44.5

UMass$336.0752.1¢-$166.93

6512395314597884CTR

UMass

Invested

$873.38

Value

$507.98

PnL

-$235.98

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

UMass

Invested

$498.21

Value

$497.01

PnL

-$1.2

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

UMass

Invested

$205

Value

$207.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Pan9X

Toledo

Invested

$216.73

Value

$117.37

PnL

-$11.01

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

LightParadox<$100

Toledo

Invested

$81.17

Value

$78.92

PnL

-$2.25

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

MadridTime<$100

Toledo

Invested

$28.93

Value

$28.13

PnL

-$0.8

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

cigarettes<$100

Toledo

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toledo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.